China: Prospects for the Race

Mercedes untouchable?

On a full-load circuit, one of the two Ferraris was mainly expected for pole position. Mistake: comfortable in the first two sectors, it was indeed the Mercedes team that stood out, with Valtteri Bottas taking his seventh career pole, 23 thousandths of a second ahead of Lewis Hamilton.

But let’s not forget the Italian team for the win! In the first laps, Sebastian Vettel (3rd) and Charles Leclerc (4th) will certainly have some overtaking opportunities, especially on the long straight (1,397 meters) between the thirteenth and fourteenth corners. It’s worth noting that the Ferrari engine (317.5 km/h recorded) is almost 5 km/h faster on the straight than the Mercedes engine! A battle is therefore possible, especially if Bottas and Hamilton face off. More aggressive this season, the Finn will certainly not back down if the Brit attacks him. Could this play into Vettel and Leclerc’s plans? The Scuderia will need to show a better pace than what was seen in the race simulation during FP2: on the softs, Hamilton and Bottas were the fastest, while Vettel was running a second and a half slower! Advantage Ferrari, however, on the hard tire. So, battle or no battle?

In the meantime, one statistic still favors Bottas: in the last five races, the poleman has won four times.

Red Bull: Spectator or Player in the Race to Victory?

The gap has narrowed for the Austrian team: nine-tenths behind the poleman in Melbourne, eight in Sakhir… and five in Shanghai, thanks to Max Verstappen, who was deprived of a final lap due to a misunderstanding with Vettel. Like last year, the long curves of the circuit suit the Austrian car, which limits the damage on the straights with the Honda engine.

For the race, the Milton Keynes team can have high hopes: Friday’s tire simulation placed Verstappen and Gasly ahead of Vettel and Leclerc. Even better, on the medium tires, the winged bull drivers were faster than both the Ferraris and Mercedes. Fortunately, Max Verstappen will start with these medium tires, as will the Bottas-Hamilton and Vettel-Leclerc duos. On the soft tires, Pierre Gasly (6th) also has chances to animate the beginning of the race! The opportunity to score big points is promising for Red Bull Racing.

Renault vs Haas: which team will emerge?

The match was cut short during the qualifications due to the timer. Advantage to the French team for now with the fourth row secured by Daniel Ricciardo (7th) and Nico Hülkenberg (8th), two drivers who even challenged Gasly’s sixth place in Q3. But in the race, the Renault F1 Team will certainly have to keep an eye on their mirrors, with the two Haas of Kevin Magnussen (9th) and Romain Grosjean (10th) behind them.

Referring to the simulations observed during FP2, the Renault team still seems slightly ahead, especially on the soft tires, with Ricciardo lapping a second faster than Grosjean. After the double retirement in Bahrain, there’s no alternative for the French team: they must bring back at least the points from seventh place, more if possible. Beware of the Haas F1 Team, which will inevitably be fast on the straights with the Ferrari engine. This side of the garage will also be driven by revenge, with Romain Grosjean aiming for his first points finish. At the expense of a Renault driver?

We’ve secured top 10 qualifying spots at all three races in 2019 👊

Mercedes and Ferrari are the only other teams with the same record. #HaasF1 pic.twitter.com/pufGhHMteK

— Haas F1 Team (@HaasF1Team) April 13, 2019

A return to the top 10 for McLaren?

The momentum in qualifying did not withstand the Chinese track. In Q3 during the first two races, McLaren this time stalled in Q2 with its two drivers stuck in 14th and 15th place, Carlos Sainz ahead of Lando Norris. The MCL34 clearly prefers more compact tracks: the poor performance in Shanghai had, in fact, been anticipated by the engineers.

But for the race, the English team should still climb up, more comfortable in a one and a half hour race than in a qualification lap. Especially since their tire degradation wasn’t bad on Friday, with Carlos Sainz, for example, running faster than the Red Bulls of Verstappen and Gasly on the medium tire. However, the progression of Sainz and Norris is likely to be hindered by the two Toro Rosso cars, very fast on the soft and hard compounds (Albon and Kvyat were the best times behind Vettel in the race simulation!). The Woking team will certainly have a tough fight with Albon, who will start from the back of the grid. Catching Kvyat ahead of them will not be easy!

Plenty of overtaking opportunities

The wide track of the Shanghai International Circuit is ideal for a grand spectacle.

Before the overtaking, we will still need to watch the action at the start, in the famous “snail” curve, closing to the right.

Major ingredient of the celebration, the aspiration, particularly in the long straight leading to the fourteenth corner. Especially since this year, the cars follow each other even more easily. Therefore, the number of overtakes in 2018 is likely to be surpassed, which was 50 in the 2018 race, including 29 without the help of DRS.

Pneumatic strategy: safety or boldness?

Very demanding due to its lateral forces, the Shanghai circuit is a nightmare for Pirelli tires. Shunned by the best in Q2, the soft compound suffers, especially in the long turns of the first and thirteenth corners. Its use in the race will be a challenge: while the Italian forecasters opt for an ideal soft+hard one-stop strategy (at the 15th lap), it will simply be impossible for the top five, who qualified in Q2 with the medium compound. Therefore, the soft compound may not be used by the leaders, with a start on mediums, a stop on the 19th lap to switch to hards… and reach the finish! The boldest will attempt a two-stop strategy: start on softs, first pit stop at the 15th lap, a second stint on softs, another stop to put on the hards, and go to the end of this Chinese Grand Prix.

New and used 🍦 #Fit4F1 #ChineseGP 🇨🇳 https://t.co/87yHFRKyjU pic.twitter.com/aEMn3iqsYa

— Pirelli Motorsport (@Pirellisport) April 13, 2019