Bahrain: Prospects for the Race

**Charles Leclerc towards the apotheosis of a first Grand Prix victory?**

No need to revisit the brilliant performance of the Monegasque, already discussed in our previous article. Barring an early retirement or a major mistake, the Monegasque is set to compete for victory for the first time in his career. Solid since the start of the weekend, the 2017 F2 champion outperformed Sebastian Vettel throughout qualifying, while being the fastest on the grid on medium tires in race simulation during FP2, with an average time of 1’34”100.

Charles Leclerc is fully taking advantage of the resurgence of his SF90, proving that the Melbourne episode was just a rough patch, on an atypical and bumpy circuit. Thanks to his hope and also to Vettel, Scuderia Ferrari dominated all the sessions of the weekend. It’s obvious, but the start will be crucial, especially since the Prancing Horse drivers also have the mission to bring back the 43 points from a double finish, which limits the risks. But Charles Leclerc can rest assured: he is free to win, as Mattia Binotto stated last night in the paddock. Free until he, in turn, benefits from a team order?

Charles Leclerc is only the third Ferrari driver (after Patrick Tambay and Chris Amon) to secure pole on their second outing with the team. Kimi Räikkönen, Juan Manuel Fangio, and “Nino” Farina all took pole on their Ferrari debut #BahrainGP 🇧🇭 #F1 pic.twitter.com/ezujzbARLx — Formula 1 (@F1) March 30.

Mercedes to turn the tide?

Should we see the glass as half empty or half full? The second force since the beginning of the weekend in Bahrain, the W10 has shown some instabilities. Proof of this is the small errors made by Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas, which were hardly detrimental but still revealing. The German team, accustomed to hiding its game, was behind Ferrari in qualifying, conceding three-tenths this time.

But caution: the pace of the two Mercedes drivers on the soft tires during race simulation was equivalent to that of Charles Leclerc or Sebastian Vettel. And Hamilton or Bottas can make a good move at the start, with 265 meters to cover until the first corner. It remains to be seen if the multiple slides observed during free practice were related to overheating of the rear tire, which would complicate Mercedes’ chances for the win. “We’re going to give them a good fight, that’s for sure…” #BahrainGP 🇧🇭 #F1 https://t.co/VpJrIYYFCX— Formula 1 (@F1) March 30 /f1/actualite/23203-bahrein-qualifications-grande-premiere-pour-charles-leclerc-.html

Haas, the third force?

After the qualifications and after a promising Australian weekend, there’s no doubt, the American team is competitive! By placing its two cars in 6th and 8th positions, the Haas F1 Team was one of the four teams to place both cars in Q3, along with Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren, but unlike Red Bull Racing. Moreover, beyond Magnussen’s sixth place, the gap with Verstappen’s fifth place delights Günther Steiner’s men: a five-thousandth gap!

A shadow on the board, however, as Romain Grosjean has been handed a three-place grid penalty for obstructing Lando Norris’s fast lap in Q1. Qualified eighth, the Frenchman will therefore start 11th. But there are many reasons to believe, like the result of the 2018 race, marked by Magnussen’s fifth place at the finish. For the Haas F1 Team and its mechanics, it’s a great opportunity to chase away the old demons that resurfaced during the previous race in Melbourne: this time, there’s no question of letting good points slip away!

McLaren in the midfield battle?

It was the pleasant surprise of Saturday: by finishing the qualifications 7th and 10th, the British team is back in business, with both of its cars in Q3, a first in a year and a half (Malaysian Grand Prix 2017). The chassis redesign from this winter seems to be paying off, managing to bring the Renault engine’s performance to a satisfactory level, also in the same tenth as Red Bull, thanks to Carlos Sainz, 56 thousandths behind Verstappen.

Unlike in Melbourne, the Woking team must this time capitalize on their efforts by bringing in their first points of the season. The McLaren team will be one of the focal points in this intense midfield battle, and possibly with Red Bull, as Pierre Gasly (13th) has to climb back up. A McLaren/Red Bull duel would be symbolic, against the backdrop of an engine supplier match Honda vs Renault. And like Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris could make history by becoming the third youngest driver ever to score points, at 19 years and 4 months.

“We must keep our heads down and execute a good race tomorrow.”

Read more on Saturday at the #BahrainGP ➡️ https://t.co/ObBILE9kSs 🇧🇭 pic.twitter.com/UhjwEf9zfH

— McLaren (@McLarenF1) March 30

Pierre Gasly, still in the shadows?

Another driver victim of elimination in Q2, the new Red Bull driver is lacking confidence. The Frenchman has been struggling since the start of the weekend with the car’s balance, particularly with the rear end—a problem already noticed during the winter tests in Barcelona. These difficulties are unforgiving against the clock, with Max Verstappen putting four-tenths of a second between them at the end of the second part of qualifying. Even more troubling, Gasly was even outpaced by a Toro Rosso, Alexander Albon’s!

Less comfortable than his teammate, the GP2 Series champion is already under pressure from the Austrian firm and its head Helmut Marko, whose reputation as a headhunter is well established. Of course, no talk of replacement just yet, but Pierre Gasly knows it: this Sunday, he must perform. Let’s hope he can relive the emotions of his strong fourth place finish secured on this same track last year. Even if facing some difficulties, his Red Bull Honda has the potential for a comeback in the points.

The temptation of a two-stop strategy

More durable, Pirelli tires, however, offer two strategic options for this second race of the season, which is 57 laps long.

On their soft tires, the top 10 drivers can maintain a good pace until around the 15th lap. After that, they will need to stop to change tires. Two possible options will then present themselves to the drivers. The more conservative: switch to hard tires to reach the finish, or put on medium tires, switching to a two-stop strategy, with medium tire reliability ranging from 20 to 25 laps, the second pit stop would then occur between the 35th and 40th lap.

Other perspectives are on the table for drivers outside the top 10: starting on softs until the 22nd lap, then mediums until the finish. But this strategy can be costly at the end of the race and would be more interesting if the race is neutralized by a Safety Car intervention. Last, bolder option: extend the first stint on softs as much as possible to switch to mediums around the 22nd lap and go to the end. Who will dare this gamble?