Ricciardo at Renault: What are the consequences for the transfer market?

The transfer gazette took an unexpected turn this Friday, just hours before the summer period marked by a total halt of the teams for two weeks. The transfer of Ricciardo to Renault for two seasons calls into question the allocation of seats.

Where will Esteban Ocon go?

The first of these concerns the fate of the current Force India driver. Considered for the French team, the arrival of the Normandy driver in 2019 was one of the main options for the Renault Sport F1 Team, according to Cyril Abiteboul, speaking to Canal+ during the last Hungarian Grand Prix. The Mercedes camp had even opened the door to the departure of their protégé to the Renault fold, in the form of a loan, with the blessing of Toto Wolff.

. @Cyroul (@RenaultSportF1): “Carlos Sainz ? (…) Ça montre que c’est un pilote exceptionnel, qu’il mérite complètement d’être chez nous… (…) On a rien signé… Esteban ? C’est une option intéressante (…)”#HungarianGP pic.twitter.com/LL7VuRSwxi

— La F1® sur CANAL (@LaF1SurCanal) 29 juillet 2018

Since then, Ricciardo’s transfer and Hülkenberg’s official announcement have closed the door to the French hopeful, who now finds himself with three less promising options (excluding the wild Red Bull idea mentioned at the end of the article).

At the top of the list: staying with Force India for a third consecutive season. However, the destiny of the French prodigy is also tied to the future of his current team, which is on the brink of bankruptcy. Currently in administration and under the control of the British authorities, Force India is waiting for a buyer. Among the four mentioned profiles are Lawrance Stroll, the father of the Williams driver, and Rich Energy, an English energy drink brand that almost acquired the team in May. Ocon must hope the second candidate is successful: the arrival of the Canadian clan would endanger his seat, as Lance Stroll would want Robert Kubica alongside him if the former Force India team is taken over. Additionally, what will Sergio Pérez’s Mexican sponsors do? An alliance with the future buyer could end Esteban Ocon’s journey.

In this case, the tricolor driver could then find refuge with McLaren or Williams. Two options that are still unlikely at present. The only hope is that the Grove firm is currently in talks with Mercedes for the use of their gearboxes. An option could then arise with his arrival in the mix. This would be a step backward given the English team’s catastrophic performances… In any case, let’s hope for a certain future for Esteban Ocon, while remembering that behind him, Pascal Wehrlein is also waiting to be placed back in Formula 1, the young German still being part of the Mercedes structure. Not to forget the new gem George Russell, leader of the Formula 2 championship at mid-season.

In any case, Esteban Ocon stated in Budapest that he was not worried about his future. Did he already know about Daniel Ricciardo’s arrival at Renault?

Who will replace Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull?

The quadruple world champion team will have to start looking for a new driver, more than two years after promoting Max Verstappen in place of Daniil Kyvat. Will Christian Horner’s team continue its strategy with Carlos Sainz? The Spanish driver is the first name to spontaneously appear on the short list.

Still under contract with Red Bull, the Sainz option seems the most obvious, being the most experienced driver in the Austrian galaxy, behind the main drivers, with 72 Grand Prix under his belt. However, Carlos Sainz’s reputation has somewhat suffered since his arrival at Renault in October 2017, on loan. In the qualifying match (6-6 against Hülkenberg this season), the Madrid-born is more subdued in the race, having only really beaten his teammate twice, in Monaco and Hungary (the statistic does not take retirements into account). His somewhat disappointing results could lead the Austrian team to reconsider their judgment, even if it means parting with a driver who will not accept a return to Toro Rosso. And remember the tumultuous collaboration between Verstappen and Sainz at Toro Rosso between March 2015 and May 2016. Moreover, the Dutchman reportedly vetoed his arrival, according to information from the Spanish site Marca.

At least one thing is certain: the future of Carlos Sainz with Red Bull will be clear by September, the deadline for the team to activate its option on the driver, who will become a free agent after this date.

The option for Red Bull would then be… **Pierre Gasly**! Having delivered an honest season marked by three standout performances in Sakhir (5th), Budapest (6th), and Monaco (7th), the Rouen native has been carrying Scuderia Toro Rosso on his shoulders, overshadowing his teammate Brendon Hartley with 26 points scored, compared to 2 for the New Zealander. A major advantage over his rivals is that Pierre Gasly already knows the Honda engine supplier, having been driving with them since the start of the season, or even since last year, following his Japanese experience in Super Formula. Additionally, the Frenchman maintains good relations with Verstappen, which could be a significant asset for data exchanges between the two sides of the garage.

Small caveat, the young Frenchman still has a lot to learn, being only in his first full season in Formula 1 (17 starts). But at the end of 2014, Red Bull chose the young Daniil Kvyat, who was 20 at the time… with 19 starts. At 22 years old and with 26 races by the end of the season, Pierre Gasly will almost come across as a seasoned veteran!

So, will the Milton Keynes team look outside for the first time since Mark Webber’s transfer at the end of 2006? Mentioned earlier, the profile of Esteban Ocon would be an ambitious choice, perhaps too much. The Force India driver was one of Verstappen’s fiercest opponents in Formula 3, and the two men have little appreciation for each other. Another wild hypothesis is choosing Fernando Alonso, who still dreams of finding a car to compete for victory. However, the Spaniard knows the Honda engine all too well and is not willing to wait a few more seasons for the Japanese power unit to realize its full potential. Everything suggests that these last two options are pure fiction.

Will the little sister Toro Rosso be influenced?

The play of communicating vessels might affect the sister team if Pierre Gasly gets promoted, given that it is hesitating to renew Brendon Hartley’s contract. Thus, the junior Scuderia might have to draw from its reservoir of young drivers. The latest rumor mentioned by Autosport places Dan Ticktum as a credible contender. In the running for the Formula 3 title, the driver born in 1999 has already received praise from Helmut Marko, who considers him ready for Formula 1. However, the Briton currently does not have the necessary points for the mandatory super-license. Toro Rosso could then borrow Lando Norris, the McLaren protégé, currently second in the Formula 2 standings. In that case, everything would be set for Sainz’s arrival… at McLaren, regardless of what Alonso decides at the end of the season, and if Vandoorne is not renewed as the trend indicates. So many prospects, all stirred by Daniel Ricciardo’s unexpected move to Renault.

Did you say “silly season”?

The dominos start to fall…

Who’s going where as #F1 silly season gets going? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/c3iT2vJGRQ

— Formula 1 (@F1) 3 août 2018