Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull: a historic three-way plan?

Dominant at the beginning of the V6 Turbo-Hybrid era, Mercedes has since learned to share. After three years alone at the top, the Brackley firm experienced a more challenging 2017 season, with only 12 victories out of 20 races on the calendar. Quite a shift compared to the 16/19 in 2014 and 2015, and also considering the 19 winner’s trophies claimed from 21 Grand Prix in 2016.

And like last year, the star-branded team has already “dropped” three races out of the first six meetings! But this time, the threat comes from both Ferrari and Red Bull, which wasn’t the case twelve months ago, when Sebastian Vettel had won in Melbourne, Sakhir, and Monaco. This year, Mercedes has to deal with the German (still winning in Melbourne and Sakhir)… but also Daniel Ricciardo, the spearhead for Red Bull in Shanghai and Monaco.

This situation posed is actually astonishing, over these past seasons. Indeed, one has to go back to 1987 to see such a scenario. At the time, McLaren (Alain Prost), Williams (Nigel Mansell), and Lotus (Ayrton Senna) each triumphed with their team twice in the first six rounds.

The Williams team then took the lead, with Mansell and his teammate Nelson Piquet competing for the title, which ultimately went to the Brazilian with one race to go. The two drivers left only crumbs at the end of the season; with 7 wins out of the remaining 10 races.

More broadly, the 2012 and 2013 seasons had done even better. In 2012, five teams had taken turns on the top step of the podium (McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull, Williams) before Mark Webber, a Red Bull driver, won in Monaco. In 2013, four teams distinguished themselves: Lotus, Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes. However, the outcome of these two examples invites reflection: while the 2012 title was decided at the last Grand Prix in Brazil (Vettel crowned against Alonso), the 2013 season was wrapped up with Vettel’s fourth title, four races before the end.

Beyond the numbers… is there a favorite emerging for the rest of the season?

It must be nuanced, though. With 110 and 96 points respectively, the Mercedes/Hamilton and Ferrari/Vettel pairs have the best chances of competing for the title. Always comfortable on circuits with long curves and on low-abrasion tracks, Mercedes has a small lead with a slightly more stable car in terms of downforce than its predecessor. Hamilton secured a lucky win (Azerbaijan) and an undisputed victory (Spain), aided by the change in thickness of the tread on Pirelli tires. Despite now having engine power equal to Ferrari’s, the German team still has strong assets to aim for both crowns, a fifth additional season. But Vettel should not be forgotten, held back by Verstappen in China (8th), and at ease with his Ferrari when temperatures rise, both on winding and fast circuits.

Really, the biggest unknown to clarify remains the case of Red Bull. Ricciardo’s two successes are the most peculiar: a comeback aided by the Safety Car in China, a victory on the anachronistic Monaco track. But let’s not forget the Australian’s collision with his teammate in Baku, which cost him a good 10 to 12 points, as he was fighting for fourth place at the time of the crash. Knocked out by an engine problem in Bahrain from the first lap (he had qualified 4th), Daniel Ricciardo’s consistency has taken quite a hit, regardless of his performance level.

What about Red Bull in Canada?

On the Gilles-Villeneuve circuit, the performance of the Austrian team will depend largely on that of its engine. This Saturday, the Renault team announced the introduction of a B version of its V6 Turbo, including a significant performance gain. However, the Renault team still has to decide which of its clients will benefit from the upgrade: Red Bull or McLaren, or perhaps both. A choice that might be disrupted by the announcement of the Austrian team, which has delayed its decision on its 2019 engine coverage by an additional month.

In the meantime, engine performance will be crucial in Montreal, where 59% of the track is completed at full throttle, with an average speed of 215 km/h and peaks at 350 km/h at the end of the long straight leading to the sequence of the 14th and last corner.

On the other hand, regarding reliability, Daniel Ricciardo has big worries. Already troubled in Monaco, he is only one change away from the regulatory limit on turbochargers and MGU-H, which will result in grid penalties beyond that. However, the damage will already be present this weekend. *The Australian will receive at least 10 grid penalties in Canada, according to the recent statement by Adrian Newey.*

In any case, “the Honey Badger” has claimed to be one victory away from the title race. The Australian wants to clinch a third winner’s trophy before the summer break.

« It’s not impossible, but it’s not really on my mind yet », said the main concerned party, during the post-race press conference in Monaco.

Ricciardo: « we still have to prove our performance on another circuit, at least, before the summer break. Lewis still has a good lead over me. »

In response, Lewis Hamilton anticipates and welcomes a potential confrontation. The Ferrari is still the strongest car. It has been good at every race of the season. And Red Bull will continue to improve throughout the year. This battle between the three teams is a big challenge for me: I like to delve deep into my skills!

To referee this battle, Pirelli brings the same tires as in Monaco, namely the hyper-soft, ultra-soft, and super-soft. Now we have to see which team will be the first to secure their third win of the season…