Analysis: Who Holds the Key to the 2019 Transfers?

As in several seasons past, Kimi Räikkönen’s situation at Ferrari seems to be the tipping point of the transfer market. Each year, we have to wait until summer to know if the Finn will be retained for the following season, or if he will retire permanently from Formula 1. His current contract (with a fixed part amounting to 8 million euros per season, negotiated in 2015 with Vettel’s arrival) with Scuderia Ferrari is ending at the end of the year, so the question is bound to arise again.

The determining fate of Kimi Räikkönen

The perfect understanding and collaboration between the two drivers, as well as “Iceman’s” contribution to the development of the single-seater, is the main argument put forward by management to justify his renewal year after year. It is true that the performances in the 2007 World Championship are below those of his teammate (5-1 in qualifications and 4-2 in races this year) but they remain decent. He also fits into the Scuderia’s strategy, which is to have a clear number one and number two. However, if Räikkönen were ultimately forced to retire – or decided to retire – at the end of the season, it could trigger a game of musical chairs among the top teams.

The case of Daniel Ricciardo is quite different. The Australian, who won the last Monaco Grand Prix and the one in China this year, is seeking a change of scenery and wants to leave Red Bull in his quest to become world champion. The “Honey Badger” believes that the Austrian team and their engine supplier Renault are not capable of giving him a car truly capable of fighting for the championship. Moreover, Max Verstappen’s prominent position within the team could prove to be a threat to him. If negotiations with Scuderia Ferrari are successful, Daniel Ricciardo will most likely be announced as the new driver for the Italian team, around the time of Monza or Suzuka, replacing Kimi Räikkönen.

Daniel Ricciardo has already entered “exclusive negotiations” with Scuderia Ferrari for a seat in 2019.

Even though his talent is no longer in doubt, Ricciardo could find himself at an impasse if these negotiations fail. A possible point of contention is the prerogatives granted to the driver, who is not ready for an implicit number 2 position within the Italian team. Another possible option is the announced departure from Maranello by Kimi Räikkönen himself, who could then turn to the horizon of the WRC, even though the main party involved has denied the Toyota hypothesis for 2019.

If @DanielRicciardo needs a new manager, @LewisHamilton is first in the queue 😂#MonacoGP pic.twitter.com/XAIghiwjXU

— Formula 1 (@F1) 28 mai /f1/actualite/22738-decryptage-raikkonen-en-rallye-chez-toyota-en-2019-.html

The potential status quo at Mercedes and Ferrari could put Daniel Ricciardo in difficulty

On the Mercedes side, instead of recruiting the Red Bull driver, the Stuttgart manufacturer might decide to retain Valtteri Bottas for 2019. In this regard, the Finn has reportedly already signed a new contract for 2019, but the deal has not yet been confirmed by the driver’s agent, Ville Ahtiainen, who does not want to comment on these rumors yet. In any case, the advantage of the former Williams driver is that he works diligently without causing waves, which is much easier for the team’s management to handle. Furthermore, his performances this season against Lewis Hamilton are more than satisfactory. Let’s recall that with a bit of luck, he could have won the Chinese Grand Prix without the intervention of the safety car (finishing second behind Ricciardo) and he was about to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix before an unfortunate puncture three laps from the finish.

If the four-time world champion team ultimately decided to keep him, it would close a door for the current Red Bull driver.

Valtteri Bottas would like to sign a multi-season contract with Mercedes.

Consequently, in the case where the status quo remains at Ferrari and Mercedes, what would be the alternative choices for Daniel Ricciardo?

Firstly, to stay with Red Bull, hoping for a sudden improvement in the team’s performance, which still doesn’t know if it will be powered by Renault or Honda in 2019. Clearly, during a period where Max Verstappen is accumulating mistakes, his extension might be desired by the management of the Milton Keynes structure.

And if Ricciardo wanted to join another team, no project seems advanced enough to spark his interest.

Except for the cases of Räikkönen and Ricciardo, what are the possible alternatives within the top teams?

Although the key to transfers is in Ferrari’s hands concerning Räikkönen, a departure or dismissal of the 2007 world champion could activate other possibilities. Instead of acquiring the services of Daniel Ricciardo, the Scuderia could decide to call on Charles Leclerc, who is part of their academy. This possibility is gaining traction, at a time when the Monegasque is performing (9 points and a sixth place in Baku) with an Alfa-Romeo Sauber, which remains a second-tier car. Integrating the 2017 F2 champion would have the advantage of giving him time to progress alongside Sebastian Vettel, without posing a threat to the German, at least initially.

Vettel and Leclerc as @ScuderiaFerrari teammates one day?

Seb’s not ruling it out…#F1 #MonacoGPhttps://t.co/M98psPf6d6

— Formula 1 (@F1) 23 mai /f1/actualite/22738-decryptage-raikkonen-en-rallye-chez-toyota-en-2019-.html

Let’s not forget Mercedes. If the team decided not to keep Valtteri Bottas for the 2019 season, it would not automatically open the door to Daniel Ricciardo. The team has another option up its sleeve: Esteban Ocon, who is part of the Mercedes fold. The Force India driver sees his career financed by the star brand, which also supplies engines to the team with discounts. If the Frenchman meets the objectives set this season (which consist of beating his teammate Sergio Pérez), it is quite possible that Mercedes would gamble on the future and raw talent. However, the eviction of Valtteri Bottas is far from certain, knowing he is also a driver closely linked with Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, who was his former manager.

Finally, at Red Bull, although Max Verstappen is firmly established with a contract until 2020, his numerous inaccuracies put him in a delicate situation, especially after he stated in the Dutch media earlier this week that he would not be demoted to Toro Rosso, quashing certain rumors. To replace a potential departure of Ricciardo, the bull-branded team could bring back Carlos Sainz, who is on loan to Renault until the end of the season. It will still be necessary to find common ground with Renault, in a complex negotiation involving the current engine supply contract.

The other possibility, which seems less likely, would simply be to integrate Pierre Gasly into Red Bull, who is delivering strong performances this season with Toro Rosso. But, will Red Bull want to take the risk of adding the Frenchman to its roster with only one year of experience and 11 Grand Prix races within the junior team Toro Rosso? Nothing is less certain. What is certain, however, is that we haven’t finished discussing the transfer market set to be at the heart of the summer!