Mexico: Which driver will hit a home run this Sunday?

An interesting circuit! The layout is very well thought out, especially for the fans; with these three zones in front of the stands. It’s very impressive to drive there and see all these people in the stands!

After delivering a very strong performance in Austin, Carlos Sainz Jr couldn’t have been more right when he mentioned the three slow zones of the Mexico circuit. The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez has hosted Formula 1, with some interruptions, since 1963. This is quite the opposite of its American geographical neighbor, which has made numerous track changes for the United States Grand Prix. Unlike any other track, the Mexican circuit goes through a former baseball stadium, where the podium is set up. Around 27,000 spectators will be able to cheer for the top three finishers of the race! Moreover, Mexico will once again be the highest-altitude Grand Prix of the season, with an elevation exceeding 2,200 meters!

Location unchanged, route modified

Built in 1962 in the heart of the Mexican capital in Magdalena Mixhuca park, the complex named Circuit Hermanos Rodriguez had a last turn that was a parabola with an inward tilt, allowing for increased speed before the pit straight. Introduced in 1963 to the F1 calendar, a first event had been organized the previous year, outside of the calendar.

It was on the occasion of this Mexican Grand Prix that, during the trials, local driver Ricardo Rodriguez lost his life. The young Mexican prodigy was in his second year in F1 (his first full season) with Scuderia Ferrari, with Enzo Ferrari himself having invited him to take the wheel of the prancing horse car. At just 19 years old in 1961, the precocious driver was thrown into the deep end. For comparison, long before Max Verstappen, the illustrious Bruce McLaren was the youngest driver to take part in a Grand Prix at the age of 24.

Two years his senior, Pedro Rodriguez was a Formula 1 driver like his brother, from 1963 to 1971, achieving two victories: in South Africa in 1967 and in Belgium in 1970. He also met his end on the track during an Inter-serie championship race at the Norisring.

Disappearing from the calendar from 1971 to 1985, then from 1993 to 2014, the Mexican Grand Prix returned in 2015 with a significantly revised track. Sector 2 saw its corners incorporated into the stadium, and the former sequence of corners 7 to 13 became a double left-right succession reminiscent of the Maggots, Becketts, and Chapel sequence at Silverstone, albeit reversed. Sector 3 has also been modified, with the last banked corner replaced by corners 12 to 16 that traverse the Foro Sol stadium, which is a baseball venue.

A crucial issue, more than ever. Secure for Rosberg. Give it all for Hamilton!

After the double win at the Circuit of the Americas, Mercedes sees its drivers, who are also rivals, getting closer in the overall Drivers’ standings. Hamilton’s goal is simple: finish first no matter what, essentially attack to have no regrets.

On the other side of the garage, the situation is both more flexible and more stressful for Nico Rosberg. Even though he holds a 26-point lead over his rival, he still needs to ensure the necessary outcome: finish behind the Briton if he wins. In reality, the driver with the number 6 can now “content himself” with two second places and one third place, regardless of Hamilton’s score.

Moreover, the information is significant: Rosberg can become world champion as early as this weekend. Indeed, he would need to gain at least 24 points over Hamilton for the dream to officially become reality. In short, two solutions are possible: the German wins and the Brit finishes tenth or out of the points under the checkered flag. Indeed, in the “worst” desirable scenario: Rosberg would total 356 points, compared to 306 points for Hamilton. With a 50 point gap, the count would be good for the former, who would then have 10 victories, compared to 7 for the latter, with two races left. In case of a final tie, Rosberg would be ahead no matter what: the deal would be sealed.

The probability is therefore low, but it has the merit of existing, especially in light of the reliability issues with the parts of the W07 of the triple World Champion, all the more so as we are reaching the very end of the season.

Once again, the evolution of the two contenders for the crown will certainly be linked with the two Red Bulls. Can Ricciardo and Verstappen transform into luxury referees? The last race in Austin was frustrating for both men. For the Austrian team, the break with its Italian adversary is now confirmed (+53 points) and Red Bull can pride itself on being the only team capable of making Mercedes tremble in its quest for success.

Daniel Ricciardo held onto second place for a long time in Austin: the virtual safety car protected Rosberg. Worse, Max Verstappen was let down by his car midway through the race, forced to retire.

Condemned to be the third force on the grid this season, Scuderia Ferrari once again put on a show in Austin, much to Sergio Marchionne’s displeasure. Kimi Räikkönen indeed retired due to a poorly attached rear wheel. Another blunder that only darkens the already grim picture. For Vettel, the assessment was slightly less damning, as the German finished fourth after experiencing issues with his rear wing midway through the race. The most concerning aspect remains his performance in qualifying, dominated by Kimi on Saturday. These facts confirm a downward trend for Vettel since the Asian tour and his mistake in Malaysia. He can still find some reassurance with the fastest lap achieved on the penultimate lap in Texas.

A little further down, Force India and Williams will still be battling for the fourth place in the Constructors’ Championship. In Austin, Williams regained two points on Force India thanks to Felipe Massa despite his puncture following Fernando Alonso’s controversial overtake three laps from the finish. Here, the fight raged from the first braking point. Starting ahead of the Williams cars, Nico Hülkenberg found himself squeezed between Vettel and Bottas, with the Finn coming up on the inside while Vettel closed the door on the outside. Hülkenberg, hit from both sides, had to retire, while Bottas suffered a puncture.

8 points now separate the two teams going into the weekend on Sergio Pérez’s home turf.

On the French side, not much to say about Esteban Ocon, who had a difficult last weekend, overshadowed by Pascal Wehrlein in both qualifying and the race. The young 20-year-old will need to raise his game in Mexico.

For Romain Grosjean, his 100th Grand Prix in the top-tier discipline was one of deliverance. Despite a disappointing qualification, the former Lotus driver secured 10th position at the finish, ending his points drought, having not finished in the top 10 for the past eight races.

To (really) know everything…

On the menu this week, a repeat on the tire front. We have the traditional super-soft, soft, and medium tires. Concerning wear, race strategies should revolve around two or three stops as was the case last season.

You can find the individual choices of the drivers below

The #PZero orders for the #F1esta are in! Here are your https://t.co/aFvwXPLACP! #MexicoGP pic.twitter.com/2Rc9ud0Tc5

— Pirelli Motorsport (@pirellisport) 18 octobre 2016

Regarding the DRS zones, the first will be placed on a part of the long start-finish straight; the second is set between turns 3 and 4 and the two slow zones. The detection zone, on the other hand, is unique and will be judged at the exit of turn 14. No doubt the drivers will have to perform well in the stadium if they want to take advantage of the device!

On the weather side, rain cannot be ruled out this weekend in Mexico City. While the first sessions are expected to be dry, clouds will be prominent in the Mexican sky and showers could disrupt the afternoon sessions according to UBIMET, the weather forecasting company in charge of F1. As for temperatures, drivers and teams will have to deal with fairly low values, between 15 and 20°C, which will undoubtedly affect the normal use of the tires!

Don’t forget the TV schedule!

Mexico being in the same time zone as Austin, expect to have to free up your evenings once again. The difference, however, will be for the race, scheduled here at 8 PM instead of 9 PM, as a result of the time change happening this weekend. With this switch to standard time, don’t forget to set your watches back one hour on Saturday night into Sunday!