Canada – Race: Did Ferrari give Hamilton victory?

As the Red Bull team had hoped and Lewis Hamilton (the poleman) had feared, the weather on Île Notre-Dame was very threatening at race time, with a few drops reported in the second sector. Less than ten days before summer, Montreal was still in autumn. The surprisingly cool temperatures for the season would affect the heating of the ultra-soft tires fitted on the top 10 drivers’ cars, particularly impacting the Ferraris, which faced difficulties in this area.

The only driver to have won more than three Grand Prix races in Montreal (with the obvious exception of Michael Schumacher), Lewis Hamilton intended to show everyone, especially his teammate, that he was once again the favorite for the world championship title. Incapable of converting one of his three poles into a victory in 2016, would Lewis Hamilton break the jinx?

Behind Hamilton, Nico Rosberg naturally wanted to prevent the Englishman’s comeback, which had begun at the previous race in Monaco. Sebastian Vettel, third and just a whisker behind the Mercedes in qualifying, armed with his new rear suspension and an advanced turbo, also harbored legitimate ambitions.

One hour before the start, we also learned that Carlos Sainz, due to a gearbox change caused by his accident the day before during qualifying, had received a five-place grid penalty. He would start 20th but would record the comeback of the day.

All the drivers started on super softs, with only a few exceptions including Sergio Perez (softs) and Jenson Button (super softs). Qualified 11th, the Force India driver had therefore chosen an alternate strategy.

At 2:00 PM (local time, 8:00 PM in France), the track was still occupied by a few mechanics. But the start was able to proceed without an additional warm-up lap. The red lights went out, and the pack charged onto the Gilles Villeneuve circuit!

A red car leapt like a rocket! Already Vettel was breaking through under Mercedes. Starting like a torpedo, the German quickly took a few lengths’ lead. The two Mercedes bunched up and Nico Rosberg had to go onto the grass. The unfortunate German was now stuck in the pack, in tenth place. What a dramatic start!

Take a bow, Sebastian Vettel. 😮

What. A. Move. 💪#CanadianGP 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/Bgm5FxRyXa

— Formula 1 (@F1) 12 juin 2016

At the end of the first lap at the chicane, Sebastian Vettel locked a wheel while braking, had to cut the chicane, and quickly saw Lewis Hamilton catching up to him. The Ferrari lost all its lead from the first lap. Behind the Ferrari and the Mercedes, the two Red Bulls (with Max Verstappen ahead of Daniel Ricciardo) were closely following, leading Kimi Räikkönen and the Williams.

Barely tenth, Nico Rosberg didn’t have time to reflect on the events of the first lap: he had to climb back up as soon as possible. His first victim was Fernando Alonso, overtaken on the straight before the chicane thanks to DRS… and the Honda engine. Nico Hülkenberg, next on the list, put up a much tougher resistance, forcing Nico Rosberg to cut the chicane at the Champions’ Wall.

Hunting Vettel, Hamilton remained within striking distance. However, the Mercedes struggled to closely follow the Ferrari. The Englishman, having entered the DRS zone and then quickly exited, could not launch any overtaking attempt.

At the 10th lap, the top 10 was as follows: Vettel, Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Räikkönen, Bottas, Massa, Hülkenberg, Rosberg, Alonso.

Trapped by his young teammate at the start, Daniel Ricciardo grew impatient behind the Dutchman. Even though Kimi Räikkönen was not yet a threat, the Red Bull pit urged the recently promoted driver to let the Australian pass. At the same time, Jenson Button’s Honda power unit already gave up in a plume of smoke.

While the Virtual Safety Car was deployed, Sebastian Vettel chose the best possible moment at that point in the race to pit and switch to super soft tires. The Ferrari took advantage of the general slowing of the pack for a few hundred meters in the pit lane. The gamble was bold for Ferrari. The Scuderia took risks and put all its eggs in the same strategic basket by calling in Kimi Räikkönen shortly after. The other leaders stayed on track. It was a poker move. Upon exiting the pits, Sebastian Vettel was only eleven seconds behind Lewis Hamilton. He had gained ten seconds with the maneuver.

This decision quickly raised a metaphysical casuistry question. Would Vettel have the right to finish the race on super-softs, or would he have to switch back to softs? After several denials and counter-denials, Paul Hembery, the competition director at Pirelli, reminded everyone of the rule: Vettel would have to switch back to softs and thus make one more stop than Lewis Hamilton. Was Ferrari aware? One would hope so for the strategy chief… It should be noted that under normal circumstances, Vettel could have finished the race. But due to the high temperatures expected weeks ago in Canada (sic), Pirelli had concocted this rule out of thin air. The tire muddle was obscure. Yet it was at the heart of the strategy, at the heart of the battle for victory.

Kimi Räikkönen, on the other hand, had less favorable timing and rejoined in the middle of the pack. Thanks to a few strong out-laps, he was nevertheless able to overtake Daniel Ricciardo. Verstappen remained.

LAP 12/70: Race leader Sebastian Vettel comes into the pits – just as the Virtual Safety Car exits #CanadianGP pic.twitter.com/uk2eoT8e7q

— Formula 1 (@F1) 12 juin 2016

One second per lap faster than the two Red Bulls with his super soft tires, Sebastian Vettel, who was even quicker than Lewis Hamilton on a Ferrari on fire and on the attack, quickly caught up to the Bulls. Overtaking was more difficult than catching up. The German lost time and wore out his tires chasing the Red Bulls. On the 17th lap, Sebastian Vettel passed Ricciardo at the hairpin. He had already lost two full seconds to Hamilton in the battle. A lap later, on the long straight, the Ferrari had no trouble getting past the Red Bull.

In the anonymity of the back of the pack, Jolyon Palmer brought his Renault back to the garage due to a technical problem. The only notable action from the English driver was causing the spin of another anonymous driver at the start of the race, Felipe Nasr. In 7th place, Nico Rosberg had managed to get past Nico Hülkenberg but was now stuck behind the Williams. The German was lapping more than a second off Hamilton’s times.

Vettel was even faster, on merit, than Lewis Hamilton, by one second per lap! The Englishman was struggling on used ultrasoft tires and was losing second after second. The world champion even missed the hairpin and saw Sebastian Vettel closing in on him… despite having an extra pit stop! After 25 laps on ultrasofts, Lewis Hamilton finally pitted and went back out on soft tires, 13 seconds behind Vettel. But the German still had to stop to switch to soft tires. He could at least afford to push on this perpetually cold Montreal track.

At the 30th lap, the top 10 was as follows: Vettel, Hamilton, Verstappen, Räikkönen, Ricciardo, Bottas, Rosberg, Perez, Massa, Hülkenberg.

With super soft tires more worn than the competition’s, Kimi Räikkönen quickly created a small bottleneck that included Daniel Ricciardo, Valtteri Bottas, and Nico Rosberg, who was setting the fastest laps on soft tires. Yet matching the pace of Max Verstappen and acting as a stopper against the threat of Nico Rosberg, Kimi Räikkönen was quickly called in to switch to soft tires.

📻 FERRARI: “Take it easy Kimi”
RAI: “I cannot take it easy, I’m trying to keep them behind!”#CanadianGP 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/BwrMPw6F9X

— Formula 1 (@F1) 12 juin 2016

At mid-race, Lewis Hamilton, on soft tires, was gaining tenth by tenth on Sebastian Vettel, whose ultrasoft tires, like those of his teammate, were beginning to struggle. As for the soft tires, it was also uncertain whether they could finish the race: as they were slipping a lot, their wear was not negligible either.

On lap 37, Felipe Massa, who had scored points in every race since the beginning of the season, had to end this impressive streak due to a mechanical problem.

But this abandonment was quickly overshadowed by the stop of the leader, Sebastian Vettel. The German, as planned, put on the soft tires and thus left the lead to Lewis Hamilton. With softer tires a dozen laps younger, the German had an attacking race ahead of him but needed to make up a good ten seconds. Was Ferrari already regretting its strategic gamble? However, as Daniel Ricciardo quickly demonstrated, the wear on the soft tires, to everyone’s surprise in these cold conditions, was much greater than expected. Would Lewis Hamilton have to stop a second time and attack hard at the end of the race? Would it rain? The suspense remained intact with thirty laps to go.

Sector by sector, Sebastian Vettel was catching up with Lewis Hamilton, who was starting to struggle on soft tires. Once he got past the backmarkers – including Romain Grosjean, who cost him four-tenths – the German got back into an intense rhythm and set a few fastest laps in a row.

GAINS & LOSSES (after 40 of 70 laps)

👏👏👏 Carlos Sainz #CanadianGP 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/9hzdgICUem

— Formula 1 (@F1) 12 juin 2016

With tires already a bit worn, Lewis Hamilton might have been considering an ultra-fast end to the race on ultra-softs. However, would his soft tires last another 15 laps without letting Sebastian Vettel fly away? Such was the dilemma. The issue was the same for Nico Rosberg, except his opponent was Bottas and the stake was 5th place. However, the German faced bad luck in the battle. His steering wheel was flashing in all directions—false alarms, but real distractions for the driver. On lap 52, suffering from a slow puncture, he had to fit new soft tires to finish the race.

On the 47th lap, Max Verstappen made the choice that Lewis Hamilton had to consider: stopping to put on ultra-soft tires. But could the excellent third-place Dutchman make it to the end without too much damage? Yes, if you considered the lighter fuel tanks. No, if you realized how much more abrasive this Montreal track was than expected.

The milestone of the 50th lap passed, the equation became more complicated for Sebastian Vettel. The German seemed to be preserving his tires after a period of attack. The gap between him and Hamilton stabilized at around five seconds. Nobody wanted to stop anymore. But who would have the choice?

At the 55th lap, the top 10 were as follows: Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas, Verstappen, Räikkönen, Ricciardo, Rosberg, Hülkenberg, Sainz, Perez.

In the other Ferrari-Mercedes duel, despite his few setbacks, Nico Rosberg was racing at full speed and gaining a second per lap on Kimi Räikkönen, with Valtteri Bottas’s podium still in sight. However, the German was lacking traction out of the corners. Nonetheless, with his fresh tires, DRS, audacious braking, and undeniable boldness, Nico Rosberg overtook the Ferrari without too much trouble.

LAP 57/70: Error through the chicane from VET

Costs him a crucial 1.5 seconds in his pursuit of HAM #CanadianGP pic.twitter.com/9tSMtrVLNf

— Formula 1 (@F1) 12 juin 2016

As time went on, Sebastian Vettel’s super-soft tires began to show signs of weakness. The German was even forced to cut the chicane twice and lost two seconds in total. His regular comeback was over. The gap widened beyond six and a half seconds. The match was lost, and the time for reckoning had already come. “I don’t understand why Ferrari made two stops,” testified Felipe Massa from the Williams garage. However, to excuse Ferrari, it was worth noting that most drivers on soft tires had to pit a second time – and the arrival of the virtual safety car accelerated the Scuderia’s decision anyway. The strategic controversy was bound to arise regardless…

These questions mattered little to Lewis Hamilton, who ultimately emerged victorious in his long-distance duel with Sebastian Vettel! The Englishman finally managed to convert one of his poles into a victory. Consequently, he closed the gap with his teammate in the overall standings.

The suspense was far from over in Canada. With five laps to go, the battle for 4th place was fiercer than ever between Max Verstappen and Nico Rosberg. Despite having more worn tires, the Dutchman resisted fiercely against the German driver. However, Nico Rosberg attacked so much that he lost control of his car on the last lap and spun out. He finished 5th with quite a scare.

LAP 70/70: ROS attacks VES for a final time and spins

He recovers though to retain P5 #CanadianGP pic.twitter.com/BVgFRN4wB9

— Formula 1 (@F1) 12 juin 2016

Discreet but oh so effective, Valtteri Bottas, a solid 3rd, lived with passion this remote duel that kept him on the podium.

Like Lewis Hamilton, the Finn had only made one pit stop. Ferrari’s choice at the beginning of the race had not paid off. If Vettel had not stopped twice, would he have won? With ifs, we could certainly move Île Notre-Dame onto the continent… In terms of pure performance, the Ferrari had at least matched the Mercedes. Encouraging for tomorrow. Frustrating for today.

PROVISIONAL CLASSIFICATION Here’s how it finished at the #CanadianGP 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/Pma6yttB8j

— Formula 1 (@F1) 12 juin 2016