Can Norris still catch up with Verstappen after the disappointment of Interlagos?
After his sixth place finish at the São Paulo Grand Prix, Lando Norris sees his title hopes diminish against Max Verstappen. With a 62-point deficit and only 86 points left to play for, the McLaren driver could still mathematically be crowned champion, but would have to rely on a series of underperformances from the Dutchman. McLaren asserts that the driver's title was not their main objective, preferring to focus on the constructors' championship.
The São Paulo Grand Prix in 2024 was supposed to be the one of the great comeback. With Lando Norris in pole position and Max Verstappen relegated to 17th place on the grid, all hopes were allowed for McLaren. But the Brazilian race finally turned into a nightmare for the British driver, finishing sixth while his rival achieved one of the greatest comebacks of his career to victory.
From being 44 points behind Sao Paulo, the gap in the championship has widened to 62 points, leaving Norris with an almost impossible equation to solve with only three Grand Prix races left. The schedule, which will take Formula 1 to Las Vegas, Qatar, and then Abu Dhabi, still offers 86 points up for grabs, including the Qatari sprint race. A theoretically sufficient total, but one that would require a scenario worthy of the greatest turnarounds in the history of the sport.
The mathematical miracle of Norris
To keep hope of claiming his first world title, Lando Norris must first survive the Las Vegas Grand Prix. A race that could already crown Verstappen if the Dutchman maintains a lead of more than 60 points. In other words, Norris must absolutely score three more points than his rival on the streets of Sin City.
Indeed, Verstappen only needs 18 points (equivalent to a second place) to secure the title before the last two races. On his side, Norris must absolutely win in Las Vegas while hoping that his rival scores a maximum of 15 points (that is, a fourth place). However, even in this scenario, the gap would be reduced to less than 60 units, leaving a tiny chance for the McLaren driver to meet the challenge.
The history of Formula 1 is not lacking in last-minute miracles. In 2007, Kimi Räikkönen was 17 points behind Lewis Hamilton with two races to go. But thanks to a spectacular comeback, the Finn managed to win two of the last three races and ultimately clinch the title by just one point.
Even more impressive, Nelson Piquet had closed a 14-point gap in 1983, equivalent to around 39 points today, on Alain Prost with three races to go and won the title. In the end, they were only two points apart, yet just like Verstappen currently, Prost had led the championship for most of the season.
However, the dominance of the triple Dutch champion this season makes the challenge even more complex for Norris. Red Bull’s driver only failed to score points once, at the Australian Grand Prix where an issue with his right rear brake forced him to retire from the race. His relentless consistency contrasts with McLaren’s inconsistent performances, despite the significant progress made by the British team since the beginning of the season.
McLaren downplays, Norris remains pragmatic.
In the paddock, the McLaren team is trying to keep a cool head. Andrea Stella, its director, has clarified the team’s position after São Paulo. The drivers’ championship has never been our main objective. Our priority has always been the constructors’ championship, even when strategic decisions had to be made regarding our drivers.
Could this change of discourse be a way to protect Norris, whose pressure may have explained some mistakes in Brazil? No, according to Stella, I do not think there was particular pressure on Lando. We were enjoying this quest, even though from the outside, some mistakes may have been overinterpreted, he said after the race.
The person, for his part, maintains a pragmatic stance in the face of the situation, « I did everything I could today », he simply stated after finishing sixth at Interlagos. « Max won the race, congratulations to him. But it doesn’t change anything about our approach. »
Mathematical reality therefore leaves Norris little chance. But between a statistical miracle and its materialization on the track, the gap remains considerable. McLaren, leading the constructors’ championship by 36 points ahead of Ferrari, seems to have already chosen its main battle. For Lando Norris, the quest for a first world title will probably have to wait, unless there is a turnaround that would mark Formula 1 history.