Christian Horner’s departure does not guarantee Max Verstappen’s future at Red Bull

As the repercussions of Christian Horner’s shocking dismissal continue to be felt throughout Formula 1, and their echo still resounds loudly, one question remains: will all this turmoil be enough to convince Max Verstappen to stay with Red Bull?

A shocking announcement

On Wednesday, Red Bull announced that it had terminated the roles of Christian Horner, team principal and CEO for 20 years, despite the undeniable successes accumulated under his leadership. A decision that, according to several sources, was primarily aimed at preventing the four-time world champion from succumbing to the allure of another team.

The sudden turnaround by the parent company, after nearly two years of internal tensions, also seems to echo the wishes of the Verstappen clan, orchestrated behind the scenes by father Jos, who has never hidden his hostility towards Christian Horner and his desire to see the team part ways with him.

And yet, such an outcome seemed unlikely after the accusations of inappropriate behavior against Christian Horner were dismissed by an independent investigation. But while this case may have served as a spark, the real fire was fueled by Red Bull’s decline in performance in recent months. And it is indeed this concerning trend that reportedly precipitated Red Bull’s decision.

A reality that Max Verstappen’s manager, Raymond Vermeulen, pointed out bluntly after Christian Horner’s departure: « We are looking to improve performance to reach the top again. From this perspective, nothing changes. »

A lack of performance in 2025

The contrast is striking: in 2023, Red Bull won 21 out of 22 Grand Prix, an almost unprecedented dominance. But a year later, Max Verstappen is barely holding onto his lead and is currently 69 points behind the championship leader, Oscar Piastri. Red Bull is fourth in the constructors’ standings – a position it owes only to the Dutchman, who has scored 165 points while his teammates combined have only seven.

This decline is primarily explained by a single-seater losing speed, which Max Verstappen himself openly criticized. Despite efforts, no significant improvement is in sight. Since the departure of the legendary engineer Adrian Newey, the balance problems that plagued the end of the previous season persist in 2025 – all the more visible as the competition makes progress.

Difficult to fully attribute these difficulties to Newey’s absence, but his influence is undeniable. The fact that the current team, led by technical director Pierre Waché, is unable to solve the problems can only reinforce Verstappen’s doubts. The car designed by Newey for the 2022 regulations had been tailor-made for the Dutch driver’s style, resulting in overwhelming success for two years.

But as the competition caught up, the weaknesses of the single-seater became more pronounced. The pursuit of extreme performance at the expense of drivability relied on Verstappen’s abilities to manage these limits. Today, even he seems to struggle, while his teammates are left behind.

Max Verstappen at Mercedes in 2026?

Faced with the great technical revolution of 2026, these signals are not reassuring. Max Verstappen is now looking towards the future – and that’s precisely what led him to open discussions with Mercedes.

Because beyond Newey, other key figures have left Red Bull in the past two years: Rob Marshall (engineering), Jonathan Wheatley (sport), Will Courtenay (strategy). Horner assured that the team had strong resources, but these departures undermine the stability so sought after by Verstappen.

And then, there is the elephant in the room, on taurine-based amphetamines: Red Bull will build its own engine starting next year, a first. Mercedes, already very advanced in this area, demonstrated in 2024 its mastery of regulations focused on motorization.

If the German firm replicates such superiority in 2026, it would become the most sought-after team on the grid. In comparison, Red Bull’s engine project represents a colossal leap into the unknown. Even established manufacturers have experienced setbacks in this exercise, as demonstrated by Honda’s painful episode with McLaren.

Verstappen probably has a fairly precise idea of the progress of the Red Bull engine. And Mercedes, if they wish to entice him, may have already given him a glimpse of their ambitions. For Max, the performances will undoubtedly weigh far more than power plays or ego issues.

For the moment, the Verstappen clan — at least Jos — seems to have gotten their way with Horner’s departure. But for Max, who aspires to stability and focus on the track, seeing a new director arrive in the midst of developing a car for 2026 is not a guarantee of serenity. Especially compared to the continuity offered by Mercedes.

At 48 years old, the Frenchman Laurent Mekies is now facing a challenge comparable to that of Horner when he took over the Jaguar team in 2005. The question remains whether Verstappen will be there to support him – or if he will move on, with or without Horner.