Do winter tests reveal the true hierarchy?
This Saturday marks the end of pre-season testing. After three days in Barcelona and three in Bahrain, lap times are being closely scrutinized by observers. But are they truly representative?
The lap times from practice sessions should always be taken with a grain of salt. It should be emphasized that most teams are not seeking pure performance but rather trying to understand and improve their cars.
It is in this perspective that we note, for example, the use of racks and flow-vis to understand the aerodynamics of the car. Teams also test different tires and conduct long stints to simulate a race pace.
Some drivers, especially on the last day, perform simulations of qualifying laps, pushing to the maximum with the softest tires, but even these results do not give an insight into what will happen during the first race.
Some factors come into play such as the fuel level, which can add weight to the car. Teams also test parts that may not necessarily be the ones used in the race cars at the first start of the race. Mercedes and Red Bull, in particular, have tested several side pods, and at this time, it is unknown which one will be used by the two favorites in the Bahrain Grand Prix.
Times in trompe l’oeil
The tests are also a true game of poker: the teams seek to work as efficiently as possible without revealing their strengths. Nobody wants to leave with the label of favorite and take the risk of seeing their car become the benchmark to copy even before the start of the season. One must therefore be wary of the times achieved by the teams, as they are often deceptive.
In 2021, Verstappen had shown himself to be the fastest of the three days of testing in Bahrain ahead of Yuki Tsunoda, Carlos Sainz, and Kimi Räikkönen. A few days later, during the qualifications for the Bahrain Grand Prix, Tsunoda qualified 13th and Räikkönen 14th, far from the promises shown during the tests.
In contrast, Hamilton and Mercedes appeared to be struggling during the tests with a temperamental W12, but that didn’t stop the British driver from winning three out of the four opening races of the season, including the Bahrain Grand Prix. Kevin Magnussen, who set the surprise fastest time yesterday, was the least performing among the 18 drivers who took to the track on the final day.
Another proof that these chronos should be taken with a certain caution.
