The outlook for the Russian Grand Prix

Can Lando Norris hold on?

It is highly likely that not many had bet on such a top three: Lando Norris – Carlos Sainz – George Russell. The big question is therefore obviously whether the three drivers will be able to maintain their positions at the end of the race.

Let’s start with Lando Norris, who has just secured his first pole position in F1. This result comes in the wake of a historic double for McLaren at the Pista Magica in Monza. Indeed, the Woking car proved in Italy that it had a lot of top speed, which should help it on the endless path to turn 2.

However, the Sochi track is known for not being kind to the poleman, who precisely offers a huge tow to the drivers behind. In this context, we can say that George Russell is in an ideal position since he will be able to make the most of his Mercedes engine to try to clinch a first “real” podium, after the farcical race at Spa-Francorchamps.

On the contrary, if Lando Norris manages to maintain his position during this first corner, it will be very difficult to prevent him from claiming his first victory in the category.

How will George Russell act?

In Belgium, we were deprived of a direct on-track confrontation between the future Mercedes teammates. This time, we will indeed have George Russell and Lewis Hamilton on the same starting line. The Williams driver’s attitude will therefore be scrutinized closely.

It will be interesting to see if he wants right away to send a strong message to his future teammate by not making it easy for him. We can remember that he hadn’t wanted to give in to Valtteri Bottas at Imola, which had led to a high-speed collision between the two drivers. Or on the contrary, to show his maturity and understanding of the stakes for this season by not getting in Lewis Hamilton’s way, who has the opportunity to take the lead in the championship against Max Verstappen. His attitude will have a significant impact on the unfolding of the start and the first laps of the race.

An opportunity for Alpine to widen the gap?

In the fight for fifth place, only 11 points separate Alpine from AlphaTauri. The qualifying session in Sochi delivered a scenario that offers good prospects for the French team, with Fernando Alonso in 6th and Esteban Ocon in 10th, while the two drivers from Faenza had to settle for 12th and 13th places.

Pierre Gasly was particularly frustrated not to have been able to get involved in the final battle, due to a lack of performing tires at the end of Q2. His disappointment could be understood even more as he will not benefit from a different strategic option since the rule of keeping Q2 tires for the top 10 does not apply in wet conditions. Therefore, the entire grid will be free to choose its strategy for tomorrow’s race start.

How far can Max Verstappen go?

Will he be able to do as well as in 2018? At the time, Max Verstappen had already been penalized for a change on his power unit, Tag Heuer (or rather Renault) at the time. After a good comeback, he finished in fifth place, behind the two Mercedes and the two Ferraris.

This year, it will be even more crucial to be able to climb as high as possible as only five small points separate the two rivals at the top of the Drivers’ championship. In other words, the Dutchman has very little chance of retaining his leading position at the end of this race. But it is vital for the rest of the season that he minimizes the gap in points with his rival. He will have to be particularly cautious during his overtaking attempts to avoid taking unnecessary risks. Especially since he will not be able to rely on the support of his teammate, Sergio Perez, who is only ninth on the grid.

All the elements are therefore combined to experience a spicy race at all levels.