The outlook for the French Grand Prix
In the heat of the South of France, the qualifications have delivered their verdict. On a track where overtaking is made easier, the hierarchy could be upset at the end of the race.
Red Bull in qualifying, Mercedes in the race?
Max Verstappen was the clear favorite in qualifying, as he dominated during free practice sessions, especially on Saturday morning. The Red Bull driver held his own and managed to set the fastest time in Q3.
However, the analysis of Friday’s race simulations seems to indicate that Mercedes has the advantage. But the fight looks close because, for the first time since Portimao, both Red Bulls and both Mercedes occupy the first two rows. The second-rate players, Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez, will thus play a crucial role in disrupting the strategic options of the two leaders.
One can remember that in Bahrain, Max Verstappen had clinched pole position before being beaten by Lewis Hamilton at the end of the race. But at the time, Sergio Perez had been disturbed by a technical issue that had relegated him to the back of the pack at the start of the race.
A new podium for Pierre Gasly?
Certainly the Frenchman is “only” sixth on the grid, which still represents an excellent performance behind the wheel of his modest AlphaTauri. Legitimately, it seems unlikely for him to reach the podium in front of his home crowd. However, the Tricolore has proven many times that he knows how to seize the opportunities that come his way, as he did two weeks ago in the streets of Baku when he was suffering from a power deficit due to an issue with his engine.
If it were to come too close for the fight for the lead, the Normand would then be in the ideal position to sign his fourth podium. This would be the first time since Jean Alesi in 1996, at Magny-Cours, that French spectators would see one of their representatives on the podium.
The Ferrari – McLaren rivalry
Behind the untouchable Red Bull – Mercedes, the battle for third place is very intense between Ferrari and McLaren. In Baku, the Scuderia has taken the lead again, reclaiming third place in the Constructors’ Championship for the first time this season.
On paper, the Reds have the advantage over the Oranges again since Carlos Sainz (5th) and Charles Leclerc (7th) are ahead of Lando Norris (8th) and Daniel Ricciardo (10th). Except that since the start of the season, Ferrari has shown an interesting pace on Saturday afternoons, before falling back into line on Sundays, whether due to a lack of performance but also execution errors in strategy.
