Tuscan Grand Prix: The Prospects for the Race

It is a very logical starting grid that was finally formed this Saturday afternoon at Mugello. The first Formula 1 qualifying session in history in Tuscany and a front row locked out by Mercedes… Lewis Hamilton ahead of Valtteri Bottas, as is often the case. Behind, a second row of Red Bull, and a surprise with Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari in 5th, ahead of the two Racing Points of Sergio Pérez and Lance Stroll.

Verstappen-Albon, can the Red Bull duo threaten Mercedes’?

The only driver capable of competing with Hamilton and Bottas against the clock, Max Verstappen is strong on the Mugello track. Three top 3 finishes in the three free practice sessions, and a third place in Q3… just over three-tenths behind the Mercedes No. 44.

But Verstappen has doubts about the race: first he will have to follow the “Black Arrows”! “We don’t know how fast they are,” wondered the Dutchman in front of the journalists. In Friday’s simulations during FP2 (available on the official F1 website), the Red Bull team was lapping on average 1 tenth slower than Mercedes per lap, with all types of tires. Not bad!

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Nuance: Alex Albon seems to be a tone lower. 4 tenths behind Verstappen on the fast lap of Q3. At least the result is there: a 4th place, his best career result after another 4th place in early July in Austria.

For the race, Albon is also counting on tire management. « Our tires last longer than those of other teams… We can be a thorn in Mercedes’ side » slipped the driver marked with number 23.

And if Red Bull is ultimately out of the picture, Bottas will have to be counted on to challenge Hamilton under normal racing circumstances. The Finnish Mercedes driver approaches the race with a sense of revenge, believing he had “the potential” to snatch pole position.

Alex Albon: we can be a thorn in the side of Mercedes!

Charles Leclerc, 5th on the grid: overrevving for Ferrari’s 1,000th Grand Prix?

The Monegasque saves the Scuderia Ferrari’s start of the weekend, which is celebrating its 1,000th Grand Prix in history at the Mugello track. An unexpected 5th position, “above our expectations,” emphasized Leclerc in the mixed zone this Saturday.

The driver feels better in his car. With this observation: Monza and Spa were extremely difficult. I fought hard to drive the car with low downforce. Here, we manage to find the right settings, I feel better in the car.

But Leclerc looks more behind than ahead: we lack the performance to fight with the guys in front. Main adversaries of the leader of the Scuderia this Sunday are the two Racing Point cars, Lance Stroll (6th on the grid) ahead of Sergio Pérez (7th), due to the penalty given to the Mexican. Not to forget Renault and Daniel Ricciardo (8th).

On the Friday afternoon race simulations, it was the Racing Point team that was the third strongest on the grid, seven tenths off Mercedes’ lap times on average. The two Ferraris were running a second behind! Better than the AlphaTauri-Renault and McLaren pack, with six drivers one and a half seconds off Mercedes’ times on the race stints Friday afternoon.

In all this, what race for Sebastian Vettel? Far down the grid in 14th place, the future Aston Martin driver mainly struggled in qualifying with his retro-liveried SF1000. A good strategy and some favorable circumstances will be necessary for him to climb up in the rankings.

Leclerc: « we lack performance to fight with the guys in front »

What can Pierre Gasly hope for from his 16th place on the grid?

The odds of success are high for the Monza winner! Tenth after qualifying a week ago, the Frenchman was this time eliminated from Q1 by just 53 thousandths of a second. A premature exit, the first since the Belgian Grand Prix in 2019, the Grand Prix marking Gasly’s return to Toro Rosso (now AlphaTauri) after his eviction from Red Bull.

Frustrated, and bothered by engine cuts “300 meters before the line” this Saturday afternoon, Gasly spoke of losing a tenth of a second per lap. His position on the grid does not reflect his true level of performance. « We are faster than where we are currently » emphasized the new Grand Prix winner.

Failing a victory, Gasly will attempt to score points for the 4th consecutive race. It’s not at all certain that the scenario will turn in his favor this time!

Gasly: We are faster than where we currently are.

Not much! Yes, the Tuscan track was spectacular as expected in the qualifying rounds. The sequence of the two left-hand corners Arrabbiata 1 – Arrabbiata 2 was a treat for both spectators and drivers, at the limiter.

But it will be hard to overtake during the race! The Mugello track has many fast corners and few major braking zones: one, in fact, at the first turn at the end of the straight. Beware of mistakes though. Esteban Ocon knows something about this after his spin at turn 5 at the end of Q3.

« This track punishes you when you attack too hard, » emphasized the Renault driver.

On the tire side, the long curves will wear out the Pirelli tires, with very rapid degradation, especially on the softs. Drivers should attempt a two-stop strategy. Ideal strategy for Pirelli: a first stop on lap 19 starting on softs. A first stop to fit another set of softs, before a second stop around lap 38 to switch to mediums until the finish. Estimated lifespan of 21-22 laps on yellow band tires!

A one-stop strategy is also possible: start on soft tires, switch to hards on lap 22, to go all the way to the end of the Grand Prix. The 59-lap race starts at 3:10 PM!

All????on Mugello.#Pirelli ???????? #TuscanGP #Fit4F1 pic.twitter.com/aU0SskD1hZ

— Pirelli Motorsport (@pirellisport) September 11, 2020