Transfers: Who will succeed Vettel at Ferrari in 2021?

Has the “silly season” (the transfer season) begun this Tuesday, May 12? The question is legitimate after the failed negotiations and the announcement of Sebastian Vettel’s departure from Scuderia Ferrari at the end of his contract, at the conclusion of this season.

Linked with the Italian team until 2024, with a salary increase last winter, Charles Leclerc now appears as the leader of Ferrari. The main challenge for his team is now to find him a new garage neighbor, capable of supporting him in the quest for driver and constructor titles.

In clear terms, five categories of drivers are to be distinguished, given the situations, the contracts of each, and the philosophy of Scuderia Ferrari, which generally prefers to promote a number 1 driver, with an experienced number 2 to support him.

Carlos Sainz: the most coherent choice?

The McLaren driver is coming off a successful 2019 season, with a sixth-place finish in the drivers’ world championship (96 points), behind the top teams. Reliable and consistent, Carlos Sainz ended McLaren’s five and a half years without a podium, bringing them a third place in Brazil after a phenomenal comeback.

Often overshadowed by Hülkenberg during his stint at Renault in 2018, Carlos Sainz became the leader of McLaren’s technical revival in 2019. After five seasons in F1, the Madrilenian, who started with Toro Rosso in 2015, is more than just a prospect to be developed. He would be a solid driver to assist Leclerc in his progression.

But isn’t Carlos Sainz’s ambition higher than just being the Monegasque’s teammate? Another major argument is that the apparent calm in Woking is miles away from the politico-media frenzy around Maranello. If McLaren’s progress continues beyond 2019, isn’t the Spaniard already in the right place to win in the future? Still in discussions with McLaren, Carlos Sainz’s contract expires at the end of the year. An extension is possible.

Sainz at Ferrari in 2021?

The +: consistency in results, very strong race pace: his 2019 season speaks for itself. No contract with McLaren for 2021 at the moment.

Cons -: the pressure at Ferrari is not the same as at McLaren, will he accept a Barrichello/Massa-like status (2010-2013 era with Alonso)?

Daniel Ricciardo: the most spectacular choice?

Certainly the most aggressive option of the trio presented in this article, above the wild rumors. He also has a contract ending at the end of the year, Daniel Ricciardo is currently questioning his ability to win with Renault in the near future. His team principal, Cyril Abiteboul, has indicated in recent days that “Dan the Man” might leave the Losange at the end of the season.

With Vettel’s departure, Ricciardo has an opportunity to step into a car that would ensure him victory. The Australian’s experience with a top team already speaks for him: 7 wins for Red Bull between 2014 and 2018 and a quality of “extreme overtaker,” when his brakes are perfectly set. Australian by birth but Italian through his ancestors, Ricciardo has already publicly announced that “he appreciated Leclerc” and that cohabitation would be “interesting.”

Problem: With Verstappen at Red Bull, Daniel Ricciardo has also already experienced the drawbacks of driving alongside a natural number 1. Feeling sidelined by Christian Horner and his team, the Australian refused a contract extension in the summer of 2018 to become THE leader at Renault.

The Vettel-Leclerc saga of 2019 is also an example of what Ricciardo might experience by signing with Maranello. Led by Mattia Binotto, is the Ferrari pit wall ready to handle new internal crisis situations? There are other priorities for the Scuderia right now, such as developing a world championship-winning car…

Ricciardo at Ferrari in 2021?

The +: has already won and proven himself in a competitive car. Can challenge Leclerc over an entire season.

The -: the possibility of reliving an open conflict with his teammate, like Sainz, not enough room for his personal ambitions?

Antonio Giovinazzi: the most rational choice?

An Italian in a Ferrari? Such a combination hasn’t happened since 2009 with Giancarlo Fisichella’s stint in the second half of the season. 11 years later, the possibility exists with the current teammate of Kimi Räikkönen at Alfa Romeo.

Antonio Giovinazzi does not hide it: in mid-March, he told Sky Sports Italia that “driving for Ferrari has always been his dream.” Reserve driver for the Scuderia in 2017 and 2018, the Italian is a former member of the Ferrari Driver Academy: Giovinazzi is already familiar with Maranello and notably worked with Sebastian Vettel.

Unlike Sainz or Ricciardo, Mattia Binotto would know what to expect by choosing Antonio Giovinazzi, who would readily accept a number 2 status in the shadow of Charles Leclerc. In the context of an economic crisis linked to the coronavirus pandemic, Giovinazzi’s salary demands would certainly allow Scuderia to make some savings.

But Ferrari remains Ferrari, and despite his nationality, Giovinazzi is far from having proven he deserves his place in Maranello. His first full F1 season last year was very average, with 14 points (fifth in Brazil), which did not shake Kimi Räikkönen. Too little to participate in the quest for a constructors’ title with Ferrari? Charles Leclerc also needs experience by his side, something Antonio Giovinazzi, with 23 Grand Prix under his belt, cannot yet claim.

Giovinazzi at Ferrari in 2021?

The +: a “product” from the Ferrari sector, Italian moreover, potentially devoted to Leclerc’s cause?

Cons: a glaring lack of results in F1, what ability as a developer for the car’s development?

The other possibilities

Bring (back) a world champion?

If the Ricciardo hypothesis is already spectacular, the idea of Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari in 2021 is downright fantastical. Except for the Mercedes fans, the vast majority of F1 followers would love to see the six-time world champion in a suit adorned with the Prancing Horse. According to Sky Sports Italia, Lewis Hamilton recently spoke with John Elkann, the president of Ferrari. A month ago, while the season was already “off,” the Briton revealed in an Instagram post (quickly deleted) that Ferrari was “his dream team.”

But the Briton is on a roll with Mercedes: according to Sky Sports Italia, Hamilton told Elkann that he wants to stay with Mercedes… and thus break the record of seven drivers’ titles held by Michael Schumacher, including the five won with Ferrari between 2000 and 2004. Five drivers’ titles is precisely the total accumulated by Lewis Hamilton with Mercedes since 2014. For now, the trend is towards a contract extension for the Briton with the Star brand, beyond his current commitment, which expires at the end of the year /f1/actualite/24009-officiel-sebastian-vettel-quittera-ferrari-a-la-fin-de-lannee-.html.

So, will Ferrari be interested in other world champions? Having left Maranello at the end of 2014, the return of Fernando Alonso is a possibility: always very communicative, the Spaniard has already stated that he “wants to return to Formula 1 in 2021,” without naming a team. Ferrari-Alonso: both parties have the advantage of knowing each other, after a first collaboration marked by 11 victories but 0 titles. With Alonso, the Scuderia would regain a fighter but also a terribly demanding driver who didn’t miss an opportunity to criticize his team when the situation became difficult. And this time, Alonso would no longer be the absolute leader!

Finally, the Scuderia could also consider a second return… of Kimi Räikkönen! 2007 World Champion with the Reds, fired at the end of 2009, rejoined in 2014, the Finn has the advantage of his immense experience within the team (eight seasons, 2007-2009 and 2014-2018), and in Formula 1 in general. Not interested in power games, “Iceman” would ultimately be an excellent aide-de-camp for Leclerc. However, his pure speed at the end of his second stint with Ferrari (in 2017 or 2018) left something to be desired, especially in qualifying.

A surprise among the other drivers on the grid?

To replace Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari may also consider Valtteri Bottas, who is also out of contract next fall. Fast but not enough to beat Hamilton over an entire season, the Scuderia could make a smart move by choosing the current teammate of the Brit, who would bring his knowledge of Mercedes.

Another profile, Nico Hülkenberg has the advantage of being without a contract and having great experience to offer. A somewhat similar profile for Sergio Pérez, who is still under contract with Racing Point/Aston Martin until 2022. Good at car setup, free after Romain Grosjean dreams of Ferrari but carries a more controversial reputation. Finally, if Charles Leclerc has indeed become the leader of Scuderia Ferrari, Pierre Gasly, very close to the Monegasque, could also become the second Ferrari driver from the start of the 2021 season.