Austria: The Prospects for the Race

The first qualifying session of the 2020 season delivered its verdict: as expected, Mercedes dominated the competition. Even though Max Verstappen finished on top in Q1, the W11 pulled away when it mattered in Q2 and Q3, leaving the Red Bull driver 0.5 seconds behind, as in the Free Practice sessions.

But it’s Bottas, not Hamilton, who took pole position: Are the two drivers well-positioned to compete for the first victory of the season after 71 laps of racing? Behind them, which outsiders, surprises, and disappointments are to be expected? Let’s look into five major questions!

Will the Mercedes drivers be as strong in the race?

Toto Wolff’s team might have experienced more cold sweats on Friday night with Red Bull Racing’s protest over the DAS, eventually authorized by the FIA. Less suspense this Saturday afternoon: despite his slide onto the grass on his final attempt in the right-hand bend of Turn 4, Bottas was stronger, particularly in Turns 7 and 8, carrying more speed according to the data.

In fact, it will take a stroke of luck to break the dynamic of the W11 this Sunday: the car is not only the fastest in qualifying but also the quickest in race pace. [According to the FP2 data](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.friday-pace-analysis-what-can-the-data-from-practice-tell-us-ahead-of-the.7uqFz4ipw7c9FeVDGnLjvC.html), the W11 has delivered 4 tenths of a second per lap to its first rival… [Racing Point](f1/actualite/24073-la-racing-point–mercedes-rose–lautre-star-du-gp-dautriche.html), considered its clone!

So it will take more to stop Mercedes this Sunday: an unfavorable race incident, more likely than a heatwave this Sunday in Austria, where the temperature will rise (28 degrees and dry weather according to forecasts), but not enough to recreate the 2019 heatwave. The German team therefore has some leeway!

On a different tire strategy, will Verstappen be able to hold off?

Only driver to have attempted the gamble of mediums in Q2, Max Verstappen slowed down in his fast lap of Q2 to keep the yellow-banded tires for the start.

With these tires, the Dutchman will be able to do about thirty laps. 28 laps on mediums were completed during free practice by Lance Stroll, a record in this regard. Pirelli’s forecasts speak of a first stop between the 27th and 32nd lap for a start on mediums. Red Bull’s driver, on the other hand, will likely take the lead after the stop of Bottas and Hamilton, who will start on softs and could stop between the 24th and 28th lap, according to Pirelli. Will it be enough? As mentioned before, Mercedes is ahead of everyone in race pace, including Red Bull.

Despite this unfavorable prognosis, Verstappen will certainly try everything, especially at the start, to challenge the power of the two Mercedes. The Dutchman will want to test the saying “never two without three” victories, at least at the Red Bull Ring, following his successes in 2018 and 2019.

Who will make the big move, McLaren or Racing Point?

Here are the two outsiders of this Austrian weekend, behind Mercedes and Red Bull. The two English teams had strong qualifying sessions, particularly McLaren, with Lando Norris securing 4th place, always skilled on a flying lap, after already dominating Sainz in the 2019 season, 11 to 10. The Spaniard settled for 8th place in Q3 this Saturday, behind Leclerc’s Ferrari.

But for 2020 and the first Grand Prix, it is indeed the Racing Point team that is favored in the predictions:

Based on what was seen in FP2 on Friday, Sergio Pérez was on average 2 tenths faster than Verstappen on the medium compound, in race pace! A slight tenth advantage also on the softs, comparing the lap times of the two men.

So it’s Stroll (9th) and especially Pérez, who can hope for a big result from his 6th place. On Friday afternoon, McLaren did not particularly shine in race simulation, with an average pace… between Williams and AlphaTauri!

Very surprised to beat Racing Point, Lando Norris says it himself: Racing Point was really faster than us on Friday!

Scuderia Ferrari, to get back on track?

The legendary Italian team had a very bad Saturday, confirming all the fears born from the SF1000. An engine less dominating than in 2019, a lack of grip and aerodynamic downforce confirmed by Vettel’s oversteer problems, enough is enough: Mattia Binotto and his team have their work cut out for them to improve a struggling car.

Now, the Scuderia is counting on warmer temperatures on Sunday and a more convincing race pace than that of the qualifications. Disappointed with his 11th place, Sebastian Vettel was still a tad more optimistic about the race pace after qualifying: the simulations show Ferrari as the fourth force, behind Mercedes, Racing Point, and Red Bull.

From their modest positions on the grid, Leclerc and Vettel should be able to pick up some positions. And the German starts from 11th place, which allows him to choose his starting tires. And to build a good strategy to save some face, already far from Mercedes.

For Williams, will Russell finish ahead of the Alfa Romeos?

Thanks to the qualifications, the Williams driver has somehow already succeeded in his weekend: George Russell was in the battle to move into Q2, with a 17th place, ahead of both Alfa Romeo cars and Magnussen’s Haas. A result that exceeded the expectations of the Mercedes-backed hopeful, on merit!

On the other hand, performance is currently very far off for Alfa Romeo. A year ago, Räikkönen started 6th and Giovinazzi 9th. This time, Iceman will start 19th, from the last row, just behind the Italian, who made a mistake in turn 4 of his final attempt.

And even if Alfa Romeo thinks they can go faster in the race, George Russell wasn’t left behind in the race simulations, [ahead of McLaren and AlphaTauri.](https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.friday-pace-analysis-what-can-the-data-from-practice-tell-us-ahead-of-the.7uqFz4ipw7c9FeVDGnLjvC.html) It’s an opportunity to showcase his talent for someone who won the honorary title of champion during virtual Grand Prix during the lockdown. And even if Latifi still has to learn, Williams can finally hold their head high this Sunday for the first race of the season!

Finally, we will, of course, monitor the performance of our 3 French drivers this Sunday. On board his Renault, invigorated by improvements on the front wing, Esteban Ocon (14th on the grid) has the best chance of climbing up and breaking into the top 10. Pierre Gasly, on the other hand, hopes for chaos ahead to join the party, while Romain Grosjean wants to confirm the better performance of his Haas in the race compared to the qualifications!