Can Red Bull and Verstappen compete for victory at Hockenheim?
The good performance of the Austrian team this Friday gives hope, but only with the Dutchman, as Daniel Ricciardo has already been penalized 20 grid places for changing several elements of his power unit.
Winner in Austria, Max Verstappen had little chance to shine in Great Britain two weeks ago, retiring six laps before the finish due to a brake problem. Clearly, the RB14 struggled, with a 0.7-second delay in qualifying from the pole time. The race was somewhat more forgiving, with a scenario that allowed the team to create an illusion. At the finish line, Daniel Ricciardo (fourth) ended eight seconds behind Vettel, but doubts lingered about the team’s competitive evolution. On Mercedes’ home ground this Friday, Red Bull has once again found itself at the forefront.
Why victory is possible
Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen shared the leadership of the FP1 and FP2 in this order. And although the gap with Lewis Hamilton is minimal, the margin is more significant with the two Ferrari drivers, who are slightly behind. In the morning, Ricciardo was 0.271 seconds ahead of Vettel (fourth) and even 0.742 seconds ahead of Räikkönen (sixth)! The gap stabilized in the afternoon, with 0.225 seconds ahead of Vettel (fourth) and 0.342 seconds in front of Räikkönen (fifth). Such a performance had not been observed since Canada and, before that, Monaco, the benchmark weekend for the team with the Winged Bull, marked by Ricciardo’s pole and victory. Enough to encourage optimism, confirmed by the gap table in free practice during the last races.
| Grand Prix | Position of the best Red Bull in FP1 | Gap with the best car of the rest of the field in FP1 | Position of the best Red Bull in FP2 | Gap with the best car of the rest of the field in FP2 | |
| 1 | Monaco | Ricciardo, P1 | -0.354 on Hamilton, P3 | Ricciardo, P1 | -0.572 on Vettel, P3 |
| 2 | Canada | Verstappen, P1 | -0.088 on Hamilton, P2 | Verstappen, P1 | -0.130 on Räikkönen, P2 |
| 3 | France | Ricciardo, P3 | +0.296 on Hamilton, P1 | Ricciardo, P2 | +0.704 on Hamilton, P1 |
| 4 | Austria | Verstappen, P3 | +0.233 on Hamilton, P1 | Ricciardo, P4 | +0.452 on Hamilton, P2 |
| 5 | Great Britain | Ricciardo, P4 | +0.657 on Hamilton, P1 | Ricciardo, P5 | +0.856 on Vettel, P1 |
| 6 | Germany | Ricciardo, P1 | -0.004 on Hamilton, P2 | Verstappen, P1 | -0.026 on Hamilton, P2 |
On a relatively slow circuit (a little over 220 km/h average per lap when the average lap speed reaches 247 km/h at Silverstone), the Austrian car returns to a status befitting its ambitions. The absence of long straights and the importance of traction suit the car, which undoubtedly has the best chassis. Sectors 1 and 3, the most winding parts of the circuit, are where the RB14 performs the strongest.
FASTEST SECTORS (65/90 MINS)
Three sectors, three teams 🙌#GermanGP 🇩🇪 #F1 pic.twitter.com/WNXM8FghJF
— Formula 1 (@F1) 20 juillet /f1/actualite/22809-autriche-course-max-verstappen-lemporte-desastre-pour-mercedes.html
Fastest sectors evenly split for Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull 👀
Who’ll make it count? find out on Saturday…#GermanGP 🇩🇪 #F1 pic.twitter.com/Ds7ICNHF81
— Formula 1 (@F1) 20 juillet /f1/actualite/22809-autriche-course-max-verstappen-lemporte-desastre-pour-mercedes.html
Moreover, Red Bull’s past performance on the German circuit is cause for optimism. In the last race at Hockenheim, Ricciardo and Verstappen both finished on the podium, in second and third place.
« I had a good balance with the car. It was a nice surprise to start so well, but it was only Friday », noted a cautious Max Verstappen on the matter. The arguments for conquest are, moreover, brushed aside.
Why the victory is a bit too ambitious
Even at the front, the gap is tiny between the best Red Bull and the closest car in the standings. 4 thousandths in the morning, 26 thousandths in the afternoon, each time with Lewis Hamilton, it’s hard to make Max Verstappen and Red Bull a 100% winning pair.
Especially since the Dutchman will be all alone against the competition. Christian Horner’s team has chosen to bet everything on Hungary with Daniel Ricciardo, the Australian observing a 20-place penalty for using a 4th internal combustion engine, a fourth MGU-H, and a fourth turbocharger, with the limit per season being set at three. Therefore, Verstappen will be vulnerable. What to do if the two Mercedes cars chase the victory and choose different strategies? The young wolf will certainly feel quite lonely tomorrow afternoon.
On his side, Ricciardo is preparing for a fight to climb back from the rear. The main person involved keeps smiling while imagining a “fun” scenario marked by many overtakes. The advantage of his situation is that his FP2 session was primarily focused on long runs on soft tires. A flaw that can turn into an asset here and serve… Max Verstappen, who will know better the tire evolution than the Mercedes or Ferrari drivers.
However, reliability is indeed the Achilles’ heel of Red Bull. The team has a real problem with its engine parts, reaching the limit as early as mid-season. Let’s recall that during his last victory, Daniel Ricciardo finished the Monaco Grand Prix with a reduced-power engine. If such a misfortune were to happen to Max Verstappen during a race, victory would surely slip away. But before worrying about reliability, Verstappen will have to overcome the performances of Mercedes and Ferrari in qualifying.
As the Dutch driver reminded us after the tests, we will have to wait and see when the big teams switch the engine to qualifying mode. One thing is certain, with such uniformity, tenths will be valuable in qualifying!
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🔥 There were some red-hot lap times on a scorching afternoon at Hockenheim#GermanGP 🇩🇪 #F1 pic.twitter.com/WpGkQspcEz
— Formula 1 (@F1) 20 juillet /f1/actualite/22809-autriche-course-max-verstappen-lemporte-desastre-pour-mercedes.html
