Mid-season report: Mercedes, challenged but still ahead

1st in the constructors’ championship: 345 points

Every period of domination comes to an end sooner or later. Mercedes is aware of this, and after four years of reign, the team is showing some signs of weakness. Pressured by Ferrari, the German team hasn’t provided its drivers with a car that’s easy to tune, especially in high temperatures, with a very narrow operating window for the rear tires.

Regarding engine power, the Grays are also joined by Ferrari, which is making visible progress. Far from the comfort zones that their predecessors had, the W09 is being pushed to its limits. This situation has already caused some damage, as evidenced by the team’s double retirement in Austria, due to a fuel pressure drop (Hamilton) and a gearbox problem (Bottas). The team had never recorded two race retirements since their return to Formula 1 in 2010! Add to that some strategic missteps, such as in Melbourne (a software bug under VSC that cost Hamilton the victory) or in Sakhir (Bottas’ poorly executed pit stop) and the conclusion is clear: no, Mercedes no longer dominates the championship.

Fortunately for the Brackley firm, these incidents are not the overarching trend of this first part of the season. The car has also been ultra-competitive on some circuits, as was the case in Barcelona or Paul Ricard, high-speed tracks. The team had introduced its latest engine evolution in France… Some improvements are still being made on the aerodynamics side, as seen in Austria, with new sidepods and a new rear wing, which should have carried Bottas to victory, leading before his retirement. At the mid-season report, the team has secured 50% of the poles (6 out of 12, compared to 5 for Ferrari and 1 for Red Bull). Even just barely, it remains at the top in total victories: 5 compared to 4 for Ferrari and 3 for Red Bull.

The pilots

At the top of the championship, Lewis Hamilton remains the man to beat. Struggling at the start of the season (two simple podiums and a fourth place in China), the Briton waited until the fourth race, in Azerbaijan, to secure his first victory, at the end of an elimination race from which he emerged as the lucky beneficiary.

The fact remains that the Briton was able to take advantage of Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari’s mistakes to take the lead. He maximized results that seemed less favorable, like in Baku, or in Germany, where the Ferrari driver handed him the victory on a plate, even though he had started only in 14th position. And what can be said about his victory in Hungary, achieved after a pole in the rain, when Mercedes was not the favorite! Circumstances are therefore favorable to the reigning world champion, who is currently at the top of the drivers’ standings, 24 points ahead of Vettel.

That said, where would we be at this stage of the championship if Valtteri Bottas hadn’t been forced to retire due to an unfortunate puncture in Azerbaijan? At that time, the Finnish driver would have taken the lead in the championship while Lewis Hamilton would still not have secured his first victory of the season. Enough to reverse a well-established trend?

Because the hierarchy is now clear: Hamilton is the leader and Bottas the “perfect lieutenant,” as Toto Wolff unfortunately described after the Hungarian Grand Prix. Yet, at the beginning of the season, Bottas seemed capable of challenging a struggling Hamilton with his car. Moreover, his consistency is commendable, with five second-place finishes garnered during this half-season.

But the former Williams driver also made a few mistakes, such as this crash during qualifying in Australia, which cost him significant points, or his excesses in Hungary to defend a second place that ultimately became fifth.

To compete with a four-time world champion, you have to be exceptional in every meeting. Bottas is a very good driver, but the comparison over the distance with Hamilton is not in his favor.

Anyway, the consistency mentioned for Bottas allows Mercedes to lead the constructors’ standings, 10 points ahead of Ferrari. In total, both drivers have entered the points 21 times over the 12 Grand Prix.

A picture is worth a thousand words. Valtteri Bottas (FIN), Mercedes AMG F1, stops on track while leading the Azerbaijan GP©️Laurent Charniaux #f1 #f1/f1/actualite/22809-autriche-course-max-verstappen-lemporte-desastre-pour-mercedes.html #azerbaijangp #azerbaijan #baku #valterribottas #bottas #mercedesamgf1 pic.twitter.com/S1i3KraDtf

— Laurent Charniaux (@CharniauxImages) 29 avril /f1/actualite/22809-autriche-course-max-verstappen-lemporte-desastre-pour-mercedes.html

*: the statistic does not take into account cases of double abandonment (in Austria here)

The rest of the season

The short-term future of Mercedes is set in a fierce battle with Ferrari for the gain of both championships. The German team has appeared more fragile this year but remains a formidable competitor and, unlike Ferrari in recent years, is accustomed to the final victory. The next four races will be important. Of the upcoming circuits, two are dedicated to high speed (Spa and Monza) and two are more winding, Singapore and Sochi. Let’s meet at the end of this sequence, which will dictate the end of the season. Everything had succeeded for Mercedes in September 2017…

But the dazzling veneer of the Star brand is beginning to slowly crack in the face of Ferrari. From a human standpoint, the Bottas case will need to be managed amid the controversy regarding his role as a ‘water carrier,’ which he “didn’t handle well,” in the heat of the moment. At the factory, the Mercedes team is taking a big hit with the departure of Aldo Costa, head of engineering, by the end of the season.

In any case, Mercedes still hopes to keep a lead. The team will approach next season with the same duo of drivers, with the former Williams driver having signed for one year. Lewis Hamilton is committed until 2020. Will he remain undefeated until then?

“We are racing a team that is faster than us this year”

Mercedes are having to over-deliver to beat Ferrari, says @LewisHamilton
https://t.co/71OosMNoPV #F1 pic.twitter.com/a9cjhMypCo

— Formula 1 (@F1) 14 août /f1/actualite/22809-autriche-course-max-verstappen-lemporte-desastre-pour-mercedes.html