Barcelona Winter Testing – Report I: Slight advantage for Ferrari?

Same story, different day? Simplified front wing, larger and deeper rear wing, this season contains its share of changes in the aesthetics of the new cars. But the hierarchy at the top doesn’t seem to be evolving. The second session of winter testing in Montmelo demonstrated it: for Melbourne, a duel in the sun is looming between Ferrari and Mercedes, with Red Bull waiting in the wings, just like a year ago.

Ferrari, the winter reference

The conclusion is simple: if we look at the timesheet, the SF90 is indeed the best car of these eight days of testing. Charles Leclerc on Thursday and then Sebastian Vettel on Friday brought the Italian car to the top. The German set the fastest time at 1:16.221, just before the midday break, on C5 tires, the hyper-softs. With some room to spare: the best time was achieved after about ten flying laps.

Faster in a straight line, the SF10 also impressed with its stability in corners. As a result, there’s better tire management, particularly evident in long stints. In a race simulation on C2 tires (medium) on Thursday afternoon, Charles Leclerc consistently drove faster than Valtteri Bottas’s Mercedes. On average, the Monegasque was even five-tenths faster than the Finn on the second stint! Obviously, this analysis should be taken with caution: after these winter tests, Ferrari has a slight edge over Mercedes.

However, caution is advised: although the Italian team is reassured by its performance, some reliability issues still need to be resolved before Australia. Ranking second in track time, the SF90 is still well behind the W10, with Vettel and Leclerc completing 997 laps over eight days, compared to 1189 laps for Hamilton and Bottas. Ferrari’s main winter concern remains this accident involving the German in the long curve of turn 3 on Wednesday morning. The cause was a failure of the left front wheel rim, resulting in an impressive crash into the Tecpro barriers. This accident cost Charles Leclerc an entire afternoon of testing, as he was supposed to take over from his quadruple world champion teammate.

Another issue was the track stoppage on Friday afternoon, due to an electrical problem and a loss of power. Adding insult to injury, Sebastian Vettel stopped on the side of the track, right in front of a Mercedes team photographer, who had plenty of opportunities to shoot the car! Not to mention cooling issues that disrupted the Reds’ progress on the first day of the second week. It’s a lot for a title contender.

It required patience: the German team waited until Friday afternoon to chase the clock. Result: Lewis Hamilton finishes just three thousandths behind Vettel’s Ferrari! The Briton flexed his muscles during his Friday afternoon qualifying simulation: first by leaving Bottas and the two Ferraris three-tenths behind on the ultra-soft C4 tires. Then by catching up to the German in hyper-soft tires, all on a fresh track, with the time set at 5 p.m. Here too, the Briton still has more to show…

Before that, Toto Wolff’s men mainly tested their new aerodynamic package, which arrived in Barcelona at the beginning of the second week. Unsatisfied with the overall behavior of the W10 during the first week, the Grays left Catalonia with far more certainties. The new front wing brought stability: Lewis Hamilton appreciated his stints with low fuel on Friday afternoon. Like its predecessor, the W10 is quite nervous, but far from uncontrollable.

Positive results for Mercedes, leading in terms of kilometers covered, equivalent to 18 Grand Prix over two weeks, and a total even greater than last year: 1190 kilometers compared to 1040 in 2018. Only one black mark, however: the oil pressure problem on Monday afternoon that kept Valtteri Bottas in the garage. Apart from that, the W10 completed numerous laps and optimized its aerodynamic setup. Now, what about the gap (if there is any) with Ferrari? While Lewis Hamilton mentions a gap of five-tenths in qualifying mode, we might question this observation, as Mercedes barely seemed to push for time in these pre-season tests.

Yes, we’ll really have to wait for the March 16th qualifiers to see if the Brit has lost his edge over his main opponents. The psychological battle is just beginning!

The best absolute times for each sector:

Sector 1: 21.648 – Charles Leclerc (C5 tire, hyper-soft, day 8)

Sector 2: 28.221 – Sebastian Vettel (C5 tire, hyper-soft, day 8)

Sector 3: 25.992 – Lewis Hamilton (C5 tire, hyper-soft, day 8)

The Promises of Red Bull

Satisfaction is in order for Christian Horner’s troops. Like Mercedes, Red Bull started playing with the clock during this second week. With one caveat: the Austrian team is the only one in the field to have set its best time on Thursday afternoon, thanks to Pierre Gasly: 1:17.091 (C5, hyper-soft). Why? The Frenchman’s crash the same day in the fast ninth-turn curve. Two wheels in the grass and an off-track a few meters further: the new Milton Keynes driver compromised his team’s end-of-program, forced to run the last day with old parts.

The position of the RB15 in the final hierarchy is therefore not representative: seventh team out of ten, especially since Max Verstappen also had gearbox issues to end his Friday. But let’s remember that the Red Bull was two-tenths faster than the Ferrari on Monday, on soft tires.

Let’s also note that the new partnership with Honda hasn’t encountered major reliability issues, despite a relatively low number of laps: 833, for 3,878 kilometers covered. Max Verstappen’s calm speaks volumes: once again, we haven’t yet seen the full potential of the Winged Bull, which could be formidable starting from the European tour. Red Bull clearly hasn’t lost its position as number 3 in the hierarchy.

Who can get close to this trio?

If the team currently best positioned seems French, no one has evidently made the connection. Like last year’s final position, Renault can at least claim the title of best of the rest, with this fifth place secured by Nico Hülkenberg, three-tenths behind Valtteri Bottas. In terms of reliability, no accidents in the second week: the R.S 19 covered 962 kilometers throughout the winter, a great performance compared to last year’s 795 kilometers. However, the car is still sufficiently unstable to threaten the frontrunners. Yes, the diamond brand constructor will have to keep an eye on its mirrors at the start of this season as the competition is close on its heels. How? To be continued this Sunday!

The best winter laps by tire type (Sky Sports F1 information):