Azerbaijan: Prospects for the Race

Leclerc still aiming for his first victory?

After dominating both practice sessions in Baku, the Monegasque shot himself in the foot due to an error in Q2. The Ferrari driver had already completed a lap that allowed him to access Q3, but during his second attempt, he arrived too quickly at turn 8, locked up, and ended his session in the barrier. Although Mercedes locked out the front row, Leclerc seemed well positioned to dislodge them. The young Scuderia talent had indeed been faster than his teammate Sebastian Vettel throughout the weekend. He was clearly the favorite for pole.

Probably equipped with medium tires at the start shortly, the Scuderia Ferrari driver will finally start from ninth position, after a penalty for Alfa Romeo driver Antonio Giovinazzi, who was penalized 10 places for using a new electronic system. In light of past events in Baku, this should not demoralize the Monegasque, who can still believe in his first victory, as anything is possible on the Azerbaijan track.

Moreover, let’s remember that Daniel Ricciardo was in a slightly further position on the grid (10th) when he secured a remarkable victory in 2017. Last year, Sergio Perez moved from eighth to third place in a much less competitive car than the Ferrari SF90! With two large DRS zones on this urban circuit in Baku, Charles Leclerc still has the chance to be an important player in the race this afternoon.

Some words of consolation for @Charles_Leclerc – from the boss of his biggest rivals…

Classy stuff from @MercedesAMGF1 and Toto Wolff 👊

📸 Credit: @AlbertFabrega#AzerbaijanGP 🇦🇿 #F1 pic.twitter.com/wyhZQJ6ofN

— Formula 1 (@F1) 27 avril 2019

Internal Struggle at Mercedes?

After a perfect start to the season, capitalizing on competitors’ mistakes, Mercedes continues to record the best times and victories. If the Silver Arrows start from the front row once again, Vettel’s Ferrari seems comfortable in race pace and will obviously hinder the Mercedes on their way to victory.

With a balanced fight in the championship, Mercedes does not support either of its two drivers in particular (for now) and will leave the field open in the fight for victory. Lewis Hamilton will have a tough challenge with Valtteri Bottas, who will be looking to take his revenge for last year, when his victory slipped away due to a puncture.

Once again, Mercedes can make a big impact in the championship this afternoon if the positions hold.

Here’s to making tomorrow one to remember, boys! 🤜🤛#AzerbaijanGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/vpYBU7TLdz

— Mercedes-AMG F1 (@MercedesAMGF1) 27 avril 2019

A Frenzied Gasly?

Disqualified from qualifying for missing the weigh-in call during the second free practice session, the Frenchman will start this Grand Prix from the pit lane. It’s the image of a very complicated start to the weekend for Gasly, who was disqualified again this Saturday due to a fuel consumption that did not comply with regulations. The Norman had nevertheless taken to the track and made an impression in Q1 with the fastest time.

Just like Leclerc, Gasly still has reasons to remain optimistic given the circumstances. Regularly tailing the Mercedes in lap times since the start of the weekend, Red Bull is close and has a clear performance advantage over mid-table teams like Haas, McLaren, or Toro Rosso. Given the likelihood of a chaotic race, Pierre Gasly could have a fun afternoon climbing up the pack, thanks to DRS and the intervention of the Safety Car.

Day of glory for the Safety Car?

This afternoon looks to be busy for Bernd Maylander, the Safety Car driver! Considering how the weekend has gone so far – and the last two years in Azerbaijan – it’s almost inevitable that the safety car will intervene at some point during the race.

As a reminder, the Safety Car was deployed three times this Saturday in Formula 2 during the main race. In Formula 1, the 2018 Grand Prix was marked by two such interventions. Similarly, and earlier in the weekend, the red flag was brought out on five different occasions during the four practice and qualifying sessions.

This is simply explained by the nature of the Baku city circuit, where high speeds and close walls cause numerous incidents.

With a long distance to turn 1, the start offers a great overtaking opportunity for anyone who gets off to a good start. Big pressure for the Mercedes at the start! Although this year, no overtaking is allowed before the finish line, the restart point is at the leader’s discretion and the group behind must react accordingly. In Formula 2 this Saturday, there was even a crash before eventual winner, Jack Aitken, tried to restart the race.

We were ready to go racing again, and then… 👀😱#AzerbaijanGP 🇦🇿 #F2 pic.twitter.com/wxK3LBTslL

— Formula 2 (@FIA_F2) April 27, 2019

A surprise podium?

With colossal stakes and almost certain race incidents, the Grand Prix in Baku will offer mid-table teams a unique opportunity to secure a podium finish, similar to Lance Stroll in 2017 or Sergio Perez in 2018. Without a doubt, everyone will try to play the opportunists, depending on race incidents. Strategists will be put to the test in a race that promises to be epic from the very first lap!