Monaco: the prospects for the race

Mercedes: go all the way for Niki

This Monegasque week is obviously special for the German team, struck to the heart with the passing of Niki Lauda, its non-executive chairman. Dominant when necessary, the German team has never been in better form in the Principality since /f1/actualite/21061-monaco-course-hamilton-dame-le-pion-a-ricciardo-et-tient-enfin-sa-victoire.html. Even slightly in trouble with his settings in FP3, Hamilton corrected the course and <a href="/f1/actualite/23337-monaco-qualifications-las-hamilton-ferrari-dans-la-nasse-.html" target="_blank" title="">clinched pole position</a> just ahead of Bottas. Another great performance for the Brackley team, lining up both cars on the front row for the fifth time this season… in six races!

Now, will the domination extend in the race? In normal configuration, the answer is usually yes, given how comfortable the W10 was in free practice, on both short and long runs. Let’s recall that Hamilton was talking about a dream car on Thursday evening…

In fact, the only things that could spoil Mercedes’ double would be the rain, a poorly executed strategy, or a disastrous start. Moreover, the German team will use a new clutch… Is it perfectly tuned? #ForNiki ❤️ pic.twitter.com/PKy63VSTiH— Formula 1 (@F1) May 26

Leclerc on the offensive

How far can Charles Leclerc come back? The question is on everyone’s lips in Monaco, including Prince Albert’s.

Trapped by his own strategists, in Q1, the hometown hero will start from a rather modest 15th place on the grid. Frustrating especially since the Scuderia driver had set the fastest time in FP3. Since then, Mattia Binotto has apologized: to make amends, the team must prepare a top-notch strategy for him. On the track, Leclerc will have to mimic Verstappen in 2018, who climbed 11 places from 20th on the grid to 9th. Can the Monegasque reach 4th place? At least one thing is almost certain: the local hero no longer has the pressure of victory!

> How Charles Leclerc’s qualifying unraveled #MonacoGP 🇲🇨 #F1 pic.twitter.com/jSv0SXkGNP — Formula 1 (@F1) 25 May

The weather to mix up the ranking?

Let’s hope it rains, it would be a bit of a lottery. If it’s dry, it might be boring! These last-chance remarks are obviously from Leclerc, who is only waiting for one thing: rain! The hope is not necessarily in vain, based on the very latest forecasts from Météo France, “rare showers” may water the Monaco track this afternoon, between 2 PM and 5 PM. In fact, the probability of rain is 40% during this period: the chances are therefore low but they exist, especially between 2 PM and 3 PM, just at the time of grid formation. White lines, lack of grip… a wet track would be a different challenge for the drivers. The last time we saw rain in a race in Monaco, the race was rather interesting. Pirelli, on the other hand, is even more ambitious.

“First drops of rain falling over #MonacoGP harbour now. Just a few isolated drops at the moment, but the forecast is for an 80% chance of rain. Which could make things very entertaining.” — Pirelli Motorsport (@Pirellisport) May 26

Attention au départ !

Let’s not forget the first hot moment: the first turn at Sainte-Dévote. With only 113 meters between the start and this turn 1, the initial momentum is crucial for overtaking. And the pole-sitter isn’t necessarily safe: five out of six times this season, the leader has lost their spot by the first turn. A poor start from Hamilton could change things, with an ultra-competitive Bottas and a watchful Verstappen. Behind them, some might try to hit the jackpot, like Romain Grosjean, frustrated by his elimination in Q2, only 13th on the grid, eight places behind Kevin Magnussen. The probability of a crash exists: some starts have been eventful in the past!

The pneumatic strategy

On paper, the most classic strategy for this Monaco Grand Prix is of course a one-stop. This is due to low tire degradation on this circuit, which puts very little stress on the rubber.

For the top 10, the start will obviously be on soft tires, as the compound was used by all qualified drivers during their Q2 run. Next, Pirelli recommends a first pit stop between the 10th and the 22nd lap (note the broad window), and a switch to hard tires, which will surely allow drivers to finish the Grand Prix. Some drivers might delay their pit stop by taking advantage of a Safety Car intervention.

A second strategy exists, moreover: switch to medium tires between the 18th lap and the 25th lap to benefit from a better pace in the early laps. The downside: more tire management until the end of the 78 laps of this Grand Prix.

Third possibility, a two-stop strategy, risky if the degradation of the softs is greater than expected, which seems unlikely with a track temperature ten degrees cooler than during qualifying. Specifically, this would mean starting on softs, a first stop between the 10th and 12th lap for a new set of softs, a second stop between the 20th and 24th lap, and hards until the finish. That’s the theory. Now for the practice, starting at 3:10 PM for the start of this Monaco Grand Prix!

From our special correspondent in Monaco