Mexico – Race Outlook

A first red line

Second and third, here are the positions of the Ferraris before Max Verstappen was stripped of his pole position for not slowing down under the yellow flag. With a three-place penalty for him, the front row turns red, Leclerc ahead of Vettel, a common occurrence this season. 800m separate the pole position from the first corner, a distance sufficient to provide a slipstream for their competitors. With their Ferrari engines, their performance stands out in the first sector, but the SF90 remain delicate on the rest of the circuit that requires good weight distribution and significant aerodynamic balance. Cars with pace but need to stay vigilant throughout the race.

Bottas Uncertainty

The Finnish driver crashed in the last corner coming out of the stadium while trying to improve his time at the end of the qualifying session. A violent impact caused him to slide along the concrete wall and then hit the Tecpro barriers head-on. Announced as sixth on the timesheet, will the last man who can prevent Hamilton from securing a sixth world title start from the track or the pit lane? Will he be penalized for a parts change?

A strategic waltz

The teams will have a strategic choice this weekend on a track that challenges the soft tires. One, two, or even three stops are possible, although the preferred strategy is two stops with a short stint on red tires and long stints on medium tires. Starting on medium tires with just one stop to switch to hard tires seems very difficult given the performance level and grip of the white tires. Race events will influence a potential third stop. A fast end of the race is anticipated for leaders who set their Q2 times on medium tires, but some may stand out by switching to soft tires mid-race.

Midfield battle

The constructors’ championship has its winner, but the rest of the standings are far from settled. With 43 points behind McLaren and only 6 ahead of Toro Rosso, Renault could pay dearly for the poor performance of its drivers in qualifying. Starting 12th and 13th, the French team will need a high level of performance to maintain its fifth place in the championship. Red Bull’s sister team could potentially score big points by occupying the fifth row on the grid. The scattered Racing Point cars at the start might also join the fray. The important slipstream ability of the circuit could lead to suspense until the final laps.

Hamilton crowned?

A 14-point lead over his teammate is enough for Hamilton to become the world drivers’ champion for the 6th time. Already crowned in Mexico in 2017 and 2018, the Briton can fulfill the saying “third time’s a charm” this Sunday. Starting third in the Grand Prix with Bottas in sixth, the latter’s misfortunes in qualifying could be the former’s fortune. Hammer Time?