Azerbaijan Grand Prix – The prospects for the race

To say that anything can happen in Baku is an understatement, as the urban race has accustomed us to wild races in its first four editions. The fifth, after a year of absence, should not deviate from the rule.

Is Lewis Hamilton the favorite?

What a turn of events! Completely outpaced during the three free practice sessions, Lewis Hamilton made a great comeback in Q2, to end in apotheosis during the final part of the session with the second time of Q3. Therefore, Mercedes is suspected of having masked its game to make its Red Bull rivals believe they would have a quiet Saturday and could increase their lead in the championships the following day.

Since last night, Mercedes had already indicated that they were satisfied with their race pace while facing difficulties in getting the tires up to temperature in one lap. Starting second, Lewis Hamilton is therefore set to be the top contender for the race as it seems unlikely that Charles Leclerc could withstand the long straight at Baku, despite the low downforce of his Ferrari.

We can therefore expect a constant struggle for the first braking, with three cars from three different teams trying to come out on top. Tire management will be key, and in this little game, we know that Lewis Hamilton knows how to take special care of his tires.

Did Red Bull get too conceited?

The big advantage with Max Verstappen is that he lets his emotions show through. And clearly, at the end of qualifying, it was disappointment that was displayed on the face of the Dutchman. After his victory in Monaco, he arrived with full confidence by leading the championship for the first time in his career.

The construction of his weekend was ideal, setting the best time in the first practice session, then the second in the second one. The beautiful machine started to falter this morning when he made a mistake in turn 15, which deprived him of the last half hour of the session.

However, the damage was minimal and the Dutchman hoped to regain the pole position, which has eluded him since the first race in Bahrain. Disappointment was therefore in order: « Obviously I am not satisfied because I was very confident that we could fight for the pole because we were comfortable throughout the weekend. The qualifications were chaotic with all these red flags and the last one at the end stopped us when we were all improving. It’s unfortunate but it’s a fast urban circuit and it can happen. »

Do large points for Ferrari against McLaren?

The fight between McLaren and Ferrari for the third place is very tight, with only two points difference. In Baku, the Scuderia could regain this position as its drivers are ideally placed. Obviously, Charles Leclerc would have preferred to fully enjoy his Monaco pole position, almost synonymous with victory. In Azerbaijan, it will be harder because the circuit offers overtaking opportunities.

However, Charles Leclerc still believes that it is possible to achieve a podium finish, just behind the two title rivals, which would result in a large number of points. The opportunity is all the more promising as Carlos Sainz will start from fifth place and could hope to finish ahead of Pierre Gasly’s AlphaTauri.

On the contrary, McLaren is clearly lagging behind as Lando Norris has received a three-place penalty, dropping him back to ninth position. Daniel Ricciardo’s challenging journey continues with another disappointment (13th) and especially a car lodged in the Tecpro barriers.

It is therefore not impossible that the Reds manage to score points with their two drivers while the Oranges could be pushed out of the top 10.

Redemption for Yuki Tsunoda?

The young Japanese driver had a perfect start to the season in Bahrain with a ninth-place finish and two points. But since then, the races have followed one after the other at the same pace as the disappointments for the AlphaTauri rookie as his final ranking continues to worsen: 12th in Imola, 15th in Portugal, and even 16th in Monaco…

Seeing him in Q3 for the first time in his career was indeed a great performance. But the story did not end in the best way as he was the one who caused the last of the four red flags of the session, making a mistake himself.

If his car can be repaired without changes, Yuki Tsunoda still has a good hand to play, starting from seventh place on the grid. This would be an opportunity for AlphaTauri to finally materialize the potential of this car that has only scored 18 points since the beginning of the season, placing it between Aston Martin and Alpine.