The key points of the Qatar F1 Grand Prix

The Losail International Circuit hosted Formula 1 for the first time in 2021, and this weekend’s race is the first of a 10-year agreement providing for the presence of F1 in Qatar.

Only three drivers on the starting grid know what it’s like to win on this circuit. Nico Hülkenberg and Sergio Perez scored victories at the GP2 Asia in 2009 and Lewis Hamilton who won the first Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix in 2021.

After this race, the teams will have a two-week break before embarking on a breathless sprint towards the last Grand Prix, with five races within six weeks. But, barring a shock, the championships will have long since ended – and it is likely that they will be decided before Sunday’s Grand Prix.

Here are the key points to remember for this weekend’s race.

Verstappen on track to clinch a third title

As this is a sprint weekend, Max Verstappen could be crowned world champion on Saturday rather than Sunday. Any tension in the title fight may have long since evaporated, and it will take a huge weekend from his teammate Sergio Perez to prolong the title fight until Sunday’s race.

Verstappen has a lead of 177 points, and he has 180 left to score this year. He needs to finish the sprint with a lead of 172 points to be crowned, which means that sixth place would be enough if his teammate Sergio Perez wins. And if Verstappen does not get the job done at that time, he only needs a lead of 146 points at the end of Sunday to become champion. Perez would need to win the sprint and the race for this not to happen.

Verstappen will therefore have a strong chance of setting a new record: that of being crowned with the highest number of Grand Prix to compete, it remains to be seen how many will be left once he has been crowned.

The resistance of tires to the desert heat

Going to Bahrain and Abu Dhabi every year does not allow us to know what to expect in terms of weather conditions in Qatar. The Pirelli tests that have taken place since the 2021 race would bring new understanding but since these tests, the circuit has been redone, which creates other unknowns.

The race will take place at night, but the air and track temperatures will remain high and it is unlikely that they will drop below 31 °C at any time. The only practice session and the sprint qualifiers will take place at 16:30 local time, respectively Friday and Saturday, and it will be about 36°C at that time both days. Uncomfortable conditions for everyone.

When F1 raced at Losail in 2021, the 17-year-old track surface caused a high level of tire degradation. Many were able to finish the race with a one-stop strategy and the leading drivers tended to make two pit stops, which was Pirelli’s preferred strategy for the teams (Verstappen made a third to ensure he scored the point for the fastest lap in his tight fight for the title with Hamilton).

Three drivers (Bottas, Russell and Latifi) suffered from left front tyre failures during the race, a potential threat that all participants will be attentive to. With the track surface being smoother, abrasion and therefore wear should be less, but heat could still cause other problems on these tyres like the appearance of blisters.

The teams will not be able to know exactly what their biggest challenge with the tires will be, as the tests take place at a different time from the races, but Pirelli has designated the hardest compounds they have used so far this year – the C1, C2 and C3 compounds.

The expansion of F1 in the Middle East

The first Formula 1 race in the Middle East took place in Bahrain in 2004, and it wasn’t until 2009 that another was added, in Abu Dhabi. In 2020, there were three races in the Arabian Peninsula, with the Bahrain International Circuit having hosted two events during the season marked by the pandemic, then the Saudi Arabia and Qatar Grand Prix were added in 2021, and F1 now had four events in the Middle East.

After the occasional disappearance of Qatar last year, while the country was busy organizing the World Cup, Formula 1 again has four rounds in the Middle East. Although the relationship between F1 and the United States has become a hot topic in recent years, the bulk of motor sport money is still in the Middle East. In fact, it is the Middle Eastern money that funds the teams and sites on other continents, so that the competitions organized in Arab countries are not really representative of the influence they exert on the financial, logistical, and sporting operations of international competitions.

However, it remains to be seen if F1 enjoys being back in Losail. The circuit has been hosting the Moto GP World Championships since 2004 and will do so at least until 2031, while the World Endurance Championship will be visiting it next season for the first time under a six-year contract.

The F1 contract provides for races in Qatar, and not specifically in Losail, but renovations to the circuit indicate that the site has prepared to become the long-term seat of F1 if plans for a Qatari street race in Doha do not come to fruition.

The struggle for second place

The second place in the constructors’ championship may be about to change hands again. Aston Martin was Red Bull’s closest rival in the standings up until the Spanish Grand Prix, the seventh race of the championship, where Mercedes overtook it.

Seven races later, Aston Martin has lost third place to Ferrari. The Scuderia, which is now 20 points behind Mercedes, has just achieved a series of performances including a victory, a third place and two pole positions in the last three race weekends. Mercedes, for its part, has achieved a third place and the point for the fastest lap during the same period.

If Ferrari were to take the double in the sprint race, it could reduce the gap separating it from Mercedes to just five points. The last time F1 ran at Losail, Ferrari was absolutely unable to keep up with Mercedes’ pace, but that was under a different technical regulation. They have been faster than Mercedes in Bahrain this year and are on the rise.

Thanks to a better understanding of the car over these last weekends, it should be expected that Ferrari will place their SF-23 higher on the grid than Mercedes can do with their W14, even though this will not allow them to overtake their rivals in the standings on Sunday night.

Andretti Autosport

The action on track in Qatar will have no bearing on the decision of Formula 1 management to welcome Andretti Autosport into the world championship. But the biggest political event of the year so far will undoubtedly be the subject of many discussions among the key players in this sport.

The FIA announced on Monday that it had approved Andretti’s candidacy to join F1, considering it to be the only viable candidate among the various entities that had applied. Andretti could become the first new team admitted to Formula 1 since Haas in 2016.

The position of the FOM is already clear. The opinions of the existing 10 F1 teams are also known, but it remains to be seen if the FIA statement that Andretti deserves the chance to race against them has convinced the skeptics.

Regardless, it is likely that the case will remain at the center of interest not only in Qatar, but also at the next United States Grand Prix, where F1 may welcome the arrival of an American team in the World Championship.

Sergeant under pressure

The only driver who has not yet secured his place on the grid for the 2024 season is Logan Sargeant, the recruit from the Williams team. His recent string of performances has cast doubt on his chances of staying in F1 for a second season.

Sargeant has abandoned in two of the last four Grand Prix, he is the only full-time driver to not have scored any points in 2023 and has still not beaten his teammate Alexander Albon in qualifications. His best position on the grid was the tenth place at the Netherlands Grand Prix, while Albon has reached Q3 five times this year and qualified up to the fourth place.

If Sargeant continues his downward trajectory this weekend, he will weaken his arguments in favor of his maintenance in F1, and this at a crucial moment of his season. Unsurprisingly, in recent weeks, rumors have circulated about different drivers likely to take his place next year.

A competitive and trouble-free race in Qatar would put him in a good position to give his best at the Circuit of the Americas. Therefore, it will not be easy for him to face an unfamiliar track with only an hour of training.