Rankings: Red Bull impossible to catch up, McLaren leads the charge
If the question of world titles has only been a formality for Red Bull, the rise of McLaren drivers promises a much more exciting end to the season. The rise in power of the papaya puts Aston Martin under threat for 4th place... and the second ranks are not yet acquired!
Red Bull and Max Verstappen were successively crowned in Suzuka and Losail: it was obvious given their performance level, which left no hope for the other teams.
With 657 units and a lead of 331 points, Red Bull can no longer be caught up with. Max Verstappen increased his total to 433 points after the Losail round, after having only collected ten in Singapore. Sergio Pérez, with 224 points, can now only hope to be the runner-up in the world championship.
But the game is far from over for second places: if we assume that Max Verstappen wins all the remaining races (five therefore) with the best lap in the race, there will still be 104 points to distribute. Both among the teams and the drivers.
And if ever Verstappen (just in case) stopped winning and he left the best lap in the race, then there would still be 146 potential points to be won. Suffice to say that the game is not over.
The P2 of manufacturers still in play
Ferrari, greatly aided by Sainz’s victory in Singapore, scored a whopping 70 points in the last three Grand Prix, while McLaren made a meteoric comeback: 104 points since Singapore, and a gap that has drastically shrunk with Aston Martin, not helped by Lance Stroll’s total anonymity (30 points scored).
The two British stables are now separated by eleven small points for 4th place. Suffice to say that Fernando Alonso, unless the AMR23 experiences an unthinkable revival and everyone else messes up, will not be able to hold the fort alone against the machines of Woking.
The threat of the papaya cars is large enough to force the Ferrari and Mercedes houses to whip up their efforts to avoid being overtaken. The German team (2nd), with 53 points scored in the last three races, has once again given ground to Ferrari (3rd) and now only has a margin of 18 lengths.
Thus, McLaren, if the infernal harvest of the Norris/Piastri duo continues, can go on to clinch the world constructors’ vice-champion title. Something that hasn’t happened since 2011! From the 5th place of the Woking team to the 2nd place of Mercedes, the gap is “only” 107 points. It will be a matter of not tripping over the carpet!
Pérez vice-champion? It’s far from a sure thing
The observation is the same in the drivers’ standings: Max Verstappen, with 69 points in three Grand Prix, has secured an end of the season free from any pressure.
But for his teammate Sergio Pérez, the game is far, very far from being won if we believe his current momentum: the Mexican has scored only five points since Marina Bay, with in addition his withdrawal in Japan.
What makes his comrades behind him come back like fighter jets on him: Lewis Hamilton is currently the best placed to contest him for the title of world vice-champion. With 30 points scored since Singapore, the seven-time world champion reduces his delay to this precise number (224 points against 194).
Mathematically, even Oscar Piastri is in the race to be 2nd. But, with 83 units (9th), it will be difficult for him to make up a 141 point deficit. Who knows therefore how far his comeback can take him: from Singapore to Qatar, via Japan, the Australian prodigy has added 47 units to his total.
However, it’s ten less than Lando Norris: the darling of McLaren (since his debut at least) is the one who carries the best momentum since Singapore. He is dangerously close to the Ferrari drivers ahead of him: Carlos Sainz (36 points in three races) and Charles Leclerc (34) are currently in 5th and 6th places.
The Monegasque will have to watch his back, as his lead is only nine points ahead of the Englishman, while the Spaniard has a cushion of 17 units to manage over his ex-McLaren teammate. It’s fair to say that it’s nothing at all.
Fernando Alonso, 6th in Qatar and 8th in the Sprint, also remains a threat for the final podium, as he is only 41 lengths behind Pérez, from his 4th place. But the drop in form of Aston Martin could compromise his chances, since Norris is 47 points behind him. The Matador only has to do the work.
As for Alpine, the performance may be there in some races. But not enough to match its ambitions: the last three races have only brought in 17 points (nine to Gasly and eight to Ocon) and the current 6th place of the Blues is barely the ranking they can expect at the twilight of this season.
In two weeks, on the Austin circuit, it is not impossible to see the fight for 2nd place tighten even more. And what if it was a taste of 2024?
