Teammate Battle: Our Predictions for the 2025 F1 Season

The 2025 Formula 1 season is set to begin at the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, with a significantly reshuffled grid. After a particularly active transfer market that saw ten drivers switch teams and the arrival of six new talents, the balance of power within the teams is completely disrupted.

Indeed, the sensational transfer of Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari, the arrival of Liam Lawson at Red Bull, and the integration of the prodigy Kimi Antonelli at Mercedes are all equations to solve. Let’s examine these new internal dynamics that could shape this new campaign where every point will count.

Red Bull: Max Verstappen – Liam Lawson

At Red Bull, the verdict seems indisputable: Max Verstappen has systematically outperformed all his teammates since his debut. The 2024 statistics against Sergio Perez are particularly staggering: 23-1 in qualifying and main races, 6-0 in qualifying and sprint races, and a colossal championship gap of 437 points to 152.

This near-total domination had only one exception in Baku in September, the only weekend where Perez outperformed Verstappen in qualifying and pure performance. Even in this case, the Mexican did not capitalize during the race, retiring after a collision with Sainz in the final lap. The extent of these gaps ultimately explains Perez’s replacement by Liam Lawson for 2025.

Certainly, Lawson has shown character during his appearances in 2024, notably by holding his own against Tsunoda in sprint qualifying. But facing the war machine that Verstappen has become, and with only 11 Grand Prix under his belt, his mission won’t be to beat him—a nearly impossible task—but to focus on limiting the gap and proving he deserves his place, unlike his predecessor who progressively fell behind Verstappen’s performance.

Prediction: overwhelming victory for Verstappen (20-4 in qualifying, 19-5 in races).

Ferrari: Charles Leclerc – Lewis Hamilton

The duo that is getting the most attention this season is undoubtedly that of Ferrari. Charles Leclerc, a Ferrari driver since 2019, welcomes seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton.

Despite the British driver’s experience and impressive track record, Leclerc starts with a clear advantage. The Monegasque knows the team perfectly and has already demonstrated his exceptional speed in qualifying. Indeed, the 2024 data speaks for itself: Leclerc dominated Sainz in qualifying (14-8) while Hamilton, who has often encountered difficulties in this exercise, was beaten by Russell in this exercise (5-19).

Moreover, the British champion is still adapting to his new environment and a Ferrari engine he had never driven before. However, the Bahrain tests showed a quick adaptation from the former Mercedes driver, who seems comfortable with his new car.

If Leclerc is expected to win the duel in qualifying, Hamilton could reduce the gap in the race thanks to his experience and tire management. Additionally, the similarity in their driving styles could also bring the two drivers closer together in favor of the seven-time world champion.

Prediction: slight victory for Leclerc (15-9 in qualifying, 13-11 in races) with an average gap of less than a tenth of a second over the season.

McLaren: Lando Norris – Oscar Piastri

At the reigning constructors’ champions, the momentum is intriguing. Lando Norris clearly dominated Oscar Piastri in 2024, with impressive statistics: 20-4 in Grand Prix qualifications (4-2 in sprint qualifications), and 16-8 in main races. Only the sprint races showed perfect equality (3-3).

Although the gaps in qualifying have often been less than 0.2 seconds, particularly at the start of the season, this consistently benefited Norris. The Briton has in fact started as the first McLaren driver in 15 of the last 16 Grand Prix (with the exception of Azerbaijan).

Piastri’s race management has significantly improved during his second F1 season. The Australian has secured two victories compared to Norris’s four, and his performances at the front have sometimes complicated his teammate’s quest for the drivers’ title, notably during controversial team orders episodes in Hungary and Monza.

Norris should maintain his advantage, particularly in qualifying, but Piastri, entering his third season in F1, should significantly close the gap. The pressure of the title could also work in Piastri’s favor if Norris makes mistakes under pressure as he has sometimes done in the past.

Prediction: Norris narrowly wins (14-10 in qualifying, 13-11 in races) but with a favorable trend for Piastri in the second half of the season.

Mercedes: George Russell – Kimi Antonelli

The arrival of the 18-year-old Italian prodigy, Kimi Antonelli, the youngest F1 driver since Max Verstappen, is creating a clear imbalance against George Russell at Mercedes. The latter, having outqualified Hamilton two seasons out of three, with a 15-9 in 2024, is naturally the favorite against the rookie.

For his part, Antonelli arrives with an impressive reputation in junior categories, but the jump to F1 remains significant. Indeed, unlike Piastri or Leclerc who arrived in F1 after double titles in F3 and then F2, Antonelli skipped F3, somewhat limiting his experience in powerful single-seaters.

However, Mercedes made sure to provide him with all possible training upon his arrival in Formula 1. The team notably had him test their old cars, allowing him to familiarize himself with the demands of driving an F1 and position himself as one of the most prepared rookies of this new season. Despite this, Russell should logically dominate this duel, while allowing Antonelli to continue his adaptation and progression in Formula 1.

Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso – Lance Stroll

At 43 years old, Fernando Alonso continues to defy time. In 2024, he clearly dominated Lance Stroll with remarkable statistics: 19-5 in Grand Prix qualifiers and 17-6 in main races. However, there is a surprising balance in the sprint format where both drivers were evenly matched (3-3 in both qualifications and sprint races).

If the duel seemed relatively competitive before the August summer break (8-5 in both sessions), the trend had clearly intensified in the second half of the season. With an AMR24 becoming less competitive against an improving midfield pack, Stroll was no longer able to outperform Alonso in qualifying or score any points in the last 11 races. During the same period, the Spaniard had scored points on six occasions, thus securing Aston Martin’s fifth place in the constructors’ championship.

The arrival of Adrian Newey and Andy Cowell creates new momentum at Aston Martin, but it is unlikely to change the internal power dynamics. Stroll has occasionally shown high-level performances, but he lacks consistency compared to Alonso’s experience and talent. The Spaniard should comfortably win this duel, but the gap could narrow if the car does not meet their expectations, as Alonso tends to invest less when the equipment does not allow for a front-runner position.

Prediction: comfortable domination by Alonso (19-5 in qualifying, 18-6 in races).

Alpine: Pierre Gasly – Jack Doohan

The French team presents the most unbalanced duo on the grid. Pierre Gasly enters his third season with Alpine, while Jack Doohan makes his F1 debut in a particularly challenging context. Indeed, persistent rumors already mention his possible replacement by Franco Colapinto during the season.

Doohan also suffers from limited preparation, with only six free practice sessions last year, compared to more than 15 for Antonelli and Bearman, for example. The pressure is therefore immense for the young Australian. This situation is somewhat reminiscent of Nyck de Vries’ in 2023, replaced by Daniel Ricciardo after only 10 Grand Prix.

Gasly should win this duel, but Doohan could surprise in a few races if he manages to adapt quickly.

Prediction: overwhelming domination by Gasly (20-4 in qualifications, 19-5 in races) with a possible driver change mid-season.

Haas: Esteban Ocon – Ollie Bearman

This duo is one of the potential surprises of the season. Esteban Ocon left Alpine after four seasons to join Haas, while Ollie Bearman arrives with the support of Ferrari and an already solid reputation following his impressive appearances in 2024.

The performance of the young Briton at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix last year had made a strong impression. Narrowly missing out on qualifying for Q3, he finished 7th, scoring points in his very first F1 race. His knowledge of the Ferrari simulator, which Haas uses, gives him an adaptation advantage that few rookies possess.

Ocon, for his part, must adapt to a Ferrari engine after years with Renault, a change that has historically posed problems for several drivers (like Ricciardo moving from Renault to Mercedes). His sometimes confrontational temperament could also be tested against a young talent who is clearly aiming to secure the Ferrari seat in the medium term.

This duel could be one of the closest on the grid, with a slight advantage for Ocon at the start of the season, which could reverse as the races progress.

Prediction: tight duel with a slight advantage to Ocon (13-11 in qualifications, 12-12 in races).

Racing Bulls: Yuki Tsunoda – Isack Hadjar

Yuki Tsunoda begins his fifth F1 season against rookie Isack Hadjar, with 2024 statistics reflecting his progression. Against Daniel Ricciardo, the Japanese driver demonstrated his superiority in qualifying (12-6) and in the championship (22 points against 12). This trend continued in the last six Grand Prix against Liam Lawson, with an impressive 6-0 in qualifying and 8 points against 4.

These figures could suggest that Tsunoda might have deserved to replace Sergio Perez at Red Bull. However, Lawson has shown promising signs, staying within 0.1 seconds of Tsunoda three times in qualifying and outpacing him twice in sprint qualifying. This internal rivalry probably also influenced Red Bull’s final decision.

Hadjar arrives at Racing Bulls with less pressure than other rookies but must prove himself. The F2 vice-champion in 2024, who unexpectedly secured an F1 spot after Sergio Perez’s contract was terminated at the very end of the season, will need time to adapt.

The Japanese driver should logically dominate his young teammate. Also, with his future within the Red Bull family being uncertain, he has every reason to shine in order to attract the attention of other teams, notably Aston Martin, which will be using Honda engines from 2026.

Prediction: clear victory for Tsunoda (16-8 in qualifying, 17-7 in races).

Williams: Alex Albon – Carlos Sainz

The most balanced duel on the grid will pit Alex Albon against Carlos Sainz, two drivers with similar careers: rejected by top teams (Red Bull for one, Ferrari for the other) but determined to prove their worth.

Albon, a true pillar of Williams for the past three years, possesses an intimate knowledge of the team but showed signs of inconsistency at the end of the 2024 season under pressure from the young Argentine, Franco Colapinto.

Carlos Sainz arrives with the experience of having held his own against Leclerc at Ferrari (finishing just 6 points behind in 2023) and a reputation as an analytical driver capable of getting the most out of any car. The Spanish driver should have a slight advantage in races due to his consistency and tire management, but Albon could surprise in qualifying. Sainz’s adaptation to his new team will also be crucial in this duel that promises to be close.

Prediction: advantage Sainz (14-10 in qualifying, 15-9 in races) with an average gap of less than a tenth per lap.

Sauber: Niko Hülkenberg – Gabriel Bortoleto

Last year before the transformation into Audi, Sauber presents a striking contrast between the experience of Hülkenberg (36 years old, over 200 Grand Prix) and the youth of Bortoleto (20 years old). The German impressed at Haas in 2024, regularly dominating Magnussen and scoring the majority of the team’s points. His ability to extract the maximum from limited cars makes him an ideal benchmark for Bortoleto.

The young Brazilian arrives with an impressive track record (champion of F3 then F2 in two years, like Leclerc and Piastri before him) but must adapt to a car probably at the back of the grid. The pressure is lower compared to some rookies, which will allow him to learn calmly away from the spotlight. Hülkenberg should dominate this duel, particularly in qualifying where he excels.

Prediction: clear victory for Hülkenberg (16-8 in qualifications, 15-9 in races) with a positive trend for Bortoleto at the end of the season.

The 2025 Formula 1 season is shaping up to be one of contrasts, with unbalanced duos (Red Bull, Mercedes, Alpine) and tight battles (Ferrari, McLaren, Williams). However, while some predictions may seem evident on paper, let’s remember that F1 always holds its share of surprises. See you in Abu Dhabi in December for the final assessment of these internal duels, which could well have unexpected twists over the course of the 24 Grand Prix.