The challenges of the Chinese Grand Prix: revealing the real performance of the single-seaters

If the return of the Australian Grand Prix as the opening round was unanimously welcomed by drivers and spectators, it’s worth noting that the Melbourne circuit remains atypical. The conditions were also peculiar this weekend with a dirty track (oil and rain) and especially crashes and safety car deployments. We are therefore far from having a real hierarchy.

A hierarchy to confirm

The first Grand Prix of the season in Australia provided insights into what the rest of the season might look like. Unsurprisingly, McLaren honored its title as the 2024 constructors’ world champion by dominating the qualifying and the race, until the final downpour disrupted Oscar Piastri’s plans. The Australian and his championship-leading teammate Lando Norris are expected to shine again in Shanghai.

It will be interesting to follow the performances of Max Verstappen and his Red Bull on a circuit less atypical than the Albert Park, which should highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the different single-seaters.

If seeing a Williams, an Aston Martin, and a Sauber together in the top 7 seems like a long shot, finding one or even both Mercedes there seems more likely. The solid performance of George Russell in Australia and Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s ability to handle pressure are guarantees on which Toto Wolff’s team can build in Shanghai.

The anticipated awakening of Ferrari

If there is one team that did not meet expectations in Melbourne, it is Ferrari. By Frédéric Vasseur’s own admission, the Italian team did not leave Australia with what they came to achieve. In dry qualifying conditions, Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were already far from the leaders. On Sunday, poor strategic decisions towards the end of the race relegated both drivers to 8th and 10th places, respectively.

However, the expectations are immense for the prancing horse team. On a track where Lewis Hamilton has already won six times, a record to beat, the Reds have no choice but to bounce back and get closer to the top positions. Facing the already impressive pace of the McLarens and a Max Verstappen ready to do anything to secure a fifth title, Ferrari is determined to show that it can fight for victory in Shanghai.

Revenge-seeking rookies

Apart from Antonelli, who managed to navigate the many traps of the Albert Park track to cross the finish line in a very commendable fourth place in his first F1 Grand Prix, the other five rookies on the grid did not have similar success.

Crashing respectively during the formation lap and then a few corners after the start, Isack Hadjar and Jack Doohan have a score to settle in Shanghai. Their teammates have demonstrated in the race that the Racing Bulls and the 2025 Alpine are single-seaters capable of fighting for points. It is up to them to join the battle.

For Gabriel Bortoleto, the situation is a bit different. Consistent throughout the weekend and close to his experienced teammate Nico Hülkenberg in terms of pace, the Brazilian should continue to fight in the middle of the pack if his car allows it.

Finally, Liam Lawson and Oliver Bearman will have to recover from their Australian disappointments and show their respective employers that the decision to appoint them in F1 was the right one.

The first Sprint race of the season

Back on the calendar in 2024 after a five-year absence due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese Grand Prix will host a Sprint race for the second consecutive year.

This year, six are on the schedule, including Shanghai, Miami, Spa, Austin, Interlagos, and Losail. It will be interesting to see what strategy each team adopts as only one practice session is on the agenda.

This first race of the weekend should provide clues about the hierarchy to expect during Sunday’s race and allow some to showcase themselves in lighter single-seaters than during the main race.

A very different weather from Melbourne

If rain was a major factor in the first Grand Prix of the season in Australia, it should be different in China.

With temperatures around 10 degrees in the morning and 20 degrees in the afternoon for the three days of testing, there should not be any major surprises in preparing for the weekend.

The risk of rain is almost non-existent, and only Sunday is expected to see dark clouds appear over the Shanghai International Circuit. The drivers will thus be able to take advantage of a dry track to get the most out of their cars.