Monaco Grand Prix weather forecast: Unsettled conditions expected for qualifying
The Formula 1 World Championship moves through the narrow streets of the Principality, where pinpoint precision and absolute concentration are essential, but in Monaco nothing can be taken for granted. Sandwiched between steep hills and damp sea breezes, the weather can change rapidly, especially as this year's two compulsory stops will complicate strategy, whatever the weather. So, what can we expect from the skies this weekend?
On this unforgiving urban track, where narrow streets allow no room for error and qualifying is often the key to success, every detail counts. And in Monaco, the weather can be one of the most unpredictable factors.
General situation
Bathed in a Mediterranean climate, the Principality of Monaco offers generally sunny weather in this second half of May, with pleasant temperatures ranging from 16°C to 24°C. The wind, often a southern sea breeze, usually blows between 10 and 15 km/h. However, in Monaco, even the showers have their peculiarities: they can arise from the sea or sweep down from the northern mountains, sometimes lingering along the coast, as was the case in 2022 and 2023.
After the violent storms and torrential rains that severely affected the Var last Tuesday, causing damage and unfortunately casualties, the weather situation in the south of France is noticeably improving. The depressions are now centered above the British Isles and the North Sea, allowing the Côte d’Azur to breathe. The weather is expected to be much calmer, although slight instability could appear on Saturday afternoon.
Friday, May 23: Free Practice 1 (1:30 PM) and Free Practice 2 (5:00 PM)
The first day of testing promises to be pleasant in the streets of the Principality, with clear skies and seasonal temperatures. The sun will largely dominate from morning until early afternoon, offering ideal conditions.
From noon, a few harmless clouds will appear but will not spoil the brilliance of the afternoon, even if they will be more numerous around 5 PM when the single-seaters are on the track. A light sea breeze, blowing from the south between 10 and 20 km/h with gusts reaching up to 25 km/h, will barely refresh the atmosphere.
The temperatures will remain remarkably stable, oscillating between 21°C and 22°C during the two free practice sessions. The track, thanks to the bright sun, will display temperatures between 34°C and 42°C, enough to allow the teams and drivers to test the full range of the softest tires offered by Pirelli. No precipitation is expected. At the end of the day, the wind will shift to the southeast and weaken (5 to 10 km/h).
Saturday, May 24: Free Practice 3 (12:30 p.m.) and Qualifying (5:00 p.m.)
Saturday promises to be more contrasting than the previous day. The morning will start under a sky shared between clouds and beautiful clearings. However, the afternoon will see slight instability set in, with an increasingly marked cloud cover over the Monegasque sky. A low risk of isolated showers is expected, especially in the hinterland from 3 p.m. These showers could occasionally spill over to the coast, which could disrupt the smooth running of the qualifications. If so, this already decisive session on this narrow circuit could hold its share of twists and turns.
The wind will remain moderate, blowing mainly from the south at around 10 km/h. As for temperatures, approximately 21°C is expected during Free Practice 3, with the track fluctuating between 37°C and 40°C. For the qualifications, the air temperature will rise to 22°C, while the track temperature should stay around 37°C, before dropping to 33°C at the end of the session.
Sunday, May 25: The race (3 p.m.)
Thanks to the rise in atmospheric pressure, the instability observed the previous day gradually dissipates, giving way to a largely sunny afternoon, only occasionally interrupted by some clouds towards the end of the day. The wind, weak and coming from the south, will not exceed 10 km/h, ensuring particularly stable conditions.
At the time of the race start, scheduled for 3 PM, the air temperature will hover around 22°C. On the track, the heat will reach about 40°C, a parameter that teams will have to take into account. Unless there’s a last-minute surprise, the track should remain perfectly dry, offering ideal conditions for a strategic race. Let’s remember that two pit stops will be mandatory, a rule designed to promote action and encourage varied strategies on a circuit known for being gentle on tires.
