Can Lando Norris really take the title from Max Verstappen?
With his 3rd place finish at Monza this weekend, Lando Norris once again gained points on Max Verstappen in the drivers' standings. With 8 more Grand Prix races to go, including 3 with a sprint format, the task looks challenging for the McLaren driver, but not impossible.
By finishing in 3rd position this Sunday at Monza behind his teammate Oscar Piastri and the winner Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris gains ground on Max Verstappen, who finished only 6th in Italy. With the bonus point for the fastest lap in the race, the British driver has closed the gap to the Dutchman to 62 points.
The McLaren driver could potentially accumulate a maximum of 232 points by the end of the season if he wins the last 8 Grand Prix by setting the fastest lap on the track and the 3 sprint races planned in the United States, Brazil, and Qatar. If the Red Bull driver secures all 2nd places, he would amass 165 points, 67 less than the number 4 driver. This would be enough for the latter to prevent Verstappen from winning a fourth title but seems quite unrealistic.
8 points per weekend to come back
With the increased competition of the past few weekends, it’s hard to imagine such consistency for both drivers, especially considering the uncertainties of sports. With a 62-point deficit, Norris must make up an average of 8 points each race weekend. Something he has only achieved twice this season, in the last two Grand Prix races (not including the Australian Grand Prix where Verstappen was forced to retire).
The Briton must hope that the Dutchman’s drop in form continues in the final weeks of the competition. Since the sprint race in Austria, Verstappen has only reached the podium twice (2nd in Great Britain and the Netherlands), finishing 5th twice and 4th and 6th once each. However, Lando Norris has not fully taken advantage of this to score big, only winning one of these 6 races. Worse, with his retirement in Spielberg, he only gained 19 points on the number 1 driver during this period.
Points lost since the beginning of the season
The absence of hierarchy between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri at McLaren since the start of the season is not in favor of number 4. Since the beginning of the season, Norris has crossed the finish line just behind his teammate on 3 occasions. The first time during the sprint race in Austria, with the McLarens finishing 2nd and 3rd, the second time during the Hungarian GP with the victory of the Australian driver ahead of the British one. And so this weekend in Monza.
If the “Papaya Rules” of the British team allow for a clean and respectful competition between the two drivers, it represents a loss for Norris. Indeed, he could have scored 11 additional points if his teammate had let him overtake in those three races. And his gap to Verstappen in the championship would be 51 points at the moment. Not to mention the showdown this weekend between the two McLaren drivers in the 1st lap of the Grand Prix, which benefited Charles Leclerc.
Managing the second driver will be key for McLaren as it will be for Red Bull
As we head into the final third of the championship in two weeks in Azerbaijan, the management of the various teams will be crucial in the title race. Accustomed to dominating the debates in recent years, Red Bull finds itself struggling and will have to heal its wounds to regain victory. Especially as Mercedes, Ferrari, and especially McLaren, each winners of one of the last three Grand Prix races, are making a strong comeback in the constructors’ championship. McLaren is now just 8 points behind Red Bull and can dream of clinching the title that has eluded them since 1998.
The performance of their single-seaters not being problematic, the British team could implement a team strategy for the upcoming events in order to maximize the chances of their number 4. Discussions are planned to this effect in the coming days.
On the Red Bull side, if Sergio Perez allowed Max Verstappen to win the title in 2021 against Lewis Hamilton in the last Grand Prix, significantly hampering the Mercedes driver’s strategy, Red Bull will also have to rely on Sergio Perez for the next 8 races to mix it up as much as possible with McLaren and Ferrari.
The quest for the Holy Grail for Lando Norris appears complex although achievable. Lewis Hamilton estimated this weekend that it was not impossible to see the coronation of his compatriot, given the significant number of points to be gathered until Abu Dhabi. It’s up to Norris to prove him right.
