The end of the 2024 F1 season promises great suspense: A look at the stakes

Formula 1 is back next week with the United States Grand Prix. It will be directly followed by the Mexico and Brazil Grand Prix. Three weeks after Sao Paulo, a new trio of races awaits the drivers with the sequence Las Vegas-Qatar-Abu Dhabi to conclude this 2024 season. Six battles on the tarmac to crown a king, but not only.

The Verstappen/Norris battle

Uncontested champion in 2022 and 2023, Max Verstappen will have to fight all the way to clinch a new title on December 8th. A struggle that could remind him of the end of the 2021 season and his duel with Hamilton. With a 52-point lead over Lando Norris, the Dutchman still has the advantage over the Briton. His Red Bull being a notch below McLarens in recent weeks, his lead could nevertheless melt away on the track. As evidence, Verstappen has not won any of the last eight GPs, a first for him since the 2020 season (11 winless races).

If he defends his throne, the Milton Keynes driver would become the second driver to win his first four driver championships consecutively, a feat achieved by Sebastian Vettel between 2010 and 2013. Lando Norris hopes to be the 35th driver to inscribe his name on the Formula 1 champions list. Leclerc, Piastri, Sainz, Hamilton, and Russell can still pretend to it, but the task looks challenging for them.

A constructor title that seems promised to McLaren

With an MCL38 that has been overshadowing its competitors in recent weeks, the Papayas can be confident as they head into the final quarter of the championship. The British team has taken the lead in the constructors’ standings following the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. A first in ten years. But the margin is thin for the team led by Zak Brown.

Find here: Constructor and driver standings of the 2024 season

Red Bull is lurking 41 points behind the team that won the last two Grand Prix (Baku and Singapore). With the level having tightened this season, Ferrari is also still in the running for the collective reward. With 75 units to catch up on, hopes are still alive within the Italian camp. Carlos Sainz is not giving up, the consistency of the Prancing Horse would allow him to make up ground on his rivals. However, the Top 3 is not yet established as Mercedes, with a strong end to the season, could close the 112-point gap with Ferrari.

Piastri catches up with Leclerc for the Top 3

Who says fierce competition between constructors, also says heated confrontation between drivers. The face-off between Verstappen and Norris at the top is the illustration of this, but the rest of the standings reflect it just as much. Third in the championship, Charles Leclerc only has an eight-point lead over Oscar Piastri. A narrow gap when many points are still up for grabs this season (180 at most by winning all the races with the bonus of the fastest lap).

Carlos Sainz, 55 points behind his teammate, and the two Mercedes drivers appear to be slightly distanced. While they can still hope for a Top 3 finish at the end of the season, it seems like a big challenge for them. Especially since Oscar Piastri has made it to the podium in the last three Grand Prix races and the Australian is unlikely to stop there if the Papayas continue to perform well in the upcoming races.

A coveted 6th place among constructors

Competition is also tough in the middle of the table among the constructors. Fifth place seems to be within reach for Aston Martin (86 points), with Racing Bulls too far behind with its 35 points. Holding onto its position would already be a good thing for Red Bull’s little sister.

Three points behind, Haas has gradually made up its deficit by scoring points in each of the last three Grand Prix races, unlike its rival. The American team could therefore snatch the sixth place from them before the end of the championship. A third protagonist could join the fight: Williams. The Grove team seems capable of delivering strong performances, as demonstrated by the ten points earned in Baku.

Pilots who want to finish in style…

After a rather quiet transfer market last year, the grid will change considerably next season. Many drivers will leave their teams after a long collaboration. Foremost among them, Lewis Hamilton. The Briton has won six of his seven world titles with the Silver Arrows since joining Mercedes in 2013. During his 280 races with the German team (a record, far ahead of Schumacher’s 180 starts with Ferrari and Verstappen with Red Bull), he has achieved 152 podiums, including 84 victories. There is no doubt he will hope to stand out again before joining Maranello.

Other drivers will open a new chapter in their Formula 1 career next year. Carlos Sainz will leave Ferrari for Williams after joining the Reds in 2021 (82 races, 3 victories). Esteban Ocon will have spent five years on the Renault-Alpine side with whom he has just reached the milestone of one hundred Grand Prix (101). The Frenchman will work with Oliver Bearman at Haas. They will notably replace Nico Hülkenberg who will have represented the American team for only two seasons (40 races). Before turning the page, these different drivers will be keen to write the last line of their respective adventures beautifully.

… Others who hope to renew their contract

If some teams already know the driver pairing that will represent them in 2025, two seats still remain to be filled: one at Racing Bulls and another at Sauber. While Hülkenberg will secure a seat at the latter, the two current drivers of this season, Valtteri Bottas (35 years old) and Guanyu Zhou (25 years old), have not yet been renewed by their team. The Finn and the Chinese, who have not scored any points this season, have a few races left to convince their management to extend their contracts. The Swiss team, of which Audi will take control of operations on January 1st, could however choose to completely renew its pair of drivers.

Kevin Magnussen (32 years old) will no longer be a Haas driver next year, not wishing to take on the reserve driver position he could have claimed. The Dane could withdraw from the grid if no full-time position becomes available to him. The Racing Bulls seat is unlikely to be his as it is on track to be assigned to Liam Lawson. The 22-year-old New Zealander is replacing Daniel Ricciardo for the final six races of the season and could be the lucky one chosen by the Red Bull team.

A 8th different winner?

This 2024 season is unique over the past decade. Seven different drivers have won at least one race (Verstappen, Sainz, Norris, Leclerc, Russell, Hamilton, and Piastri). To find a season with more than seven winners in Grand Prix, you have to go back to 2012 with eight victorious drivers (as in 2003, 1985, and 1983).

If we are still far from the record of 11 unique winners in 1982, it is possible that another driver will inscribe his name on the list of winners of this 2024 edition. Sergio Perez, although he has been struggling in recent months, could be galvanized during his home Grand Prix (Mexico, from October 25 to 27). The Red Bull driver seems to be the most credible candidate to achieve this. It will be difficult for other teams to snatch the 25 points of the first place from the four leaders of the championship. Unless a strategist like Fernando Alonso takes advantage of race incidents.

Young drivers to watch

Formula 1 will honor young drivers next year with the arrivals of Antonelli, Bearman, and Doohan as regular drivers. According to the latest races, this seems to be a good idea. The Briton shone when he drove for Ferrari in Jeddah (7th) and then for Haas in Baku (10th). After being in place for three races at Williams, Franco Colapinto impresses with his maturity. The Argentine notably crossed the finish line in eighth place in Azerbaijan and will aim for more Top 10 finishes before the end of the season. Still at a standstill for 2025, he has the opportunity to continue proving the full extent of his talent.

Read also: F1 becoming more and more favorable to young drivers

Liam Lawson has also already scored points during his short five-race stint in 2023 with Racing Bulls (formerly AlphaTauri). He could repeat this performance by the end of the year. This would not be surprising given his talent and the nonchalance that youth has been showing lately.

Give prominence to sprints

Half of the scheduled sprint races on the calendar have not yet taken place. These will be highlighted in the United States (October 19), Brazil (November 2) and Qatar (November 30). A double dose of pleasure for Formula 1 fans and additional opportunities for drivers to shine.

Find here: End of the 2024 season calendar

In a thrilling end-of-season, these sprint formats will be even more interesting to follow. Especially with less emphasis on tire management than in a race, drivers could take risks to collect as many points as possible. Just a reminder, the top eight drivers score points (eight for the first and decreasing for each following position until the eighth).

Alpine waiting for a reaction.

Times are tough at Alpine. While the announcement of the discontinuation of the Renault engine development seems to be a blow for the brand’s enthusiasts, the on-track performances are not shining. With only 13 points taken in 18 outings, the French team is second to last in the constructors’ championship.

A situation far from what the team based in Enstone had hoped for. No revolution is expected in the French camp, but getting back on track wouldn’t hurt before entering a final season with a home engine. And it might allow Esteban Ocon not to be left unsatisfied.

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