Bahrain Grand Prix: race stakes

We’re here! 106 days of waiting since the end of the 2020 season and here is the opening round of the new championship at the Sakhir circuit, for the Bahrain Grand Prix.

The highly anticipated battle between Mercedes (Hamilton) and Red Bull (Verstappen)?

She is certainly in front of us: the showdown between the defending champion and his rival! The opportunity to challenge Mercedes at the beginning of the season has never been stronger for Red Bull with its leader, Max Verstappen, on pole for the 4th time in his career. The ever-young driver (23 years old) outpaced Lewis Hamilton by nearly 4 tenths this Saturday.

The RB16B confirms so far the potential seen, well helped according to the reigning world champion by the aerodynamic changes imposed by the FIA. A bit of annoyance already for Hamilton, but Mercedes has resources. The W12 is fast on long stints, roughly at the level of Red Bull. It remains demanding, “undriveable” at times on Friday afternoon for Valtteri Bottas during his race simulation in FP2.

Beware of surprises and rear train slides, especially with changing weather conditions (see below). Verstappen obviously has a more comfortable car than Hamilton but the Briton can still push for victory by sheer force!

Which outsider will shine?

The best of the others / “best of the rest” from the first grid of 2021 is a Ferrari driver! Charles Leclerc confirmed in qualifying the progress of the Scuderia with a fine 4th place. Onboard cameras show that the SF21 is a more stable car, a beneficial observation for both short and long stints.

Ferrari must fully engage in a 5-way battle with Pierre Gasly, the two McLarens, and Sergio Pérez.

Friend of Leclerc, AlphaTauri driver starts just behind him in 5th place. Impressed by the level of his car, **Pierre Gasly** has a strong asset up his sleeve, with a start on medium tires, unlike Leclerc, and the two McLaren drivers.

A little more discreet than on Friday, Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris are still in ambush in 6th and 7th position. The McLaren showed better abilities in long stints during winter testing but Ferrari and AlphaTauri have clearly caught up.

So we will have to keep an eye on these drivers, the best placed to claim a spot on the podium if the Verstappen-Hamilton-Bottas trio cracks.

Let’s not forget in this story Sergio Pérez ! Stuck in Q2 this Saturday, Verstappen’s new teammate doesn’t know everything about his Red Bull yet, but he should make his way up with his specialty: good management of Pirelli tires. By the way, the Mexican is the first driver on the grid to choose his tires for the start.

Behind, Alpine and Aston Martin seem to be lagging behind. The new teams still have a long way to go to optimize their car. But Fernando Alonso can completely level the field and strike hard for his return to F1. We will watch the ability to overtake the two cars thanks to Esteban Ocon and Sebastian Vettel, who start respectively 16th and 18th.

We are waiting for Tsunoda.

The Japanese prodigy finishes 13th, in the heart of the pack for his first F1 race. Not really the true position for Yuki Tsunoda, who was caught out by his tire strategy, after setting the 2nd fastest time in Q1. Wedged between the two Alfa Romeos of Antonio Giovinazzi (12th) and Kimi Räikkönen (14th), Gasly’s teammate is not just making up the numbers, as evidenced by his annoyed radio messages. Born in 2000, the driver is likely to quickly attempt overtaking maneuvers, as he did in his previous year in Formula 2.

Keep an eye on the back of the grid: a nostalgic moment with the first Formula 1 race of Mick Schumacher. More than eight years after his father Michael’s last race, the new Haas driver starts 19th aboard a car that cannot offer him any points… unless a miracle happens! His first mission will be to beat his teammate, Nikita Mazepin, who made headlines in qualifying.

Changing weather?

More freshness this Sunday in Bahrain! Temperatures are dropping. We go from around thirty degrees in the air during qualifications… to 21 degrees at the start of the race! As a result, the track will be cooler and the Pirelli tires will be harder to heat up. Add to that the returning wind at the Sakhir circuit with gusts up to 50 km/h: beware of temperamental and unbalanced cars!

The wind returns to the Sakhir circuit with gusts up to 50 km/h: beware of temperamental and unbalanced cars!

What strategy is Pirelli pursuing?

With this changing weather, the manufacturer Pirelli recommends an ideal 2-stop strategy. Drivers who can start on medium tires will be favored.

Pirelli indeed suggests starting with these tires, and making a first pit stop on the 18th lap to switch to hard compounds. Then, another pit stop on the 39th lap (after a 21-lap stint) to put on a new set of medium tires until the end of the race.

Pirelli does not recommend the softer compound, but some drivers will have to use them on their first stint: Leclerc, Ricciardo, Norris, Carlos Sainz, Lance Stroll, and Alonso all qualified in Q3 with these tires.

Here, the ideal strategy is as follows: a start on soft tires, a first pit stop on the 15th lap, and two stints on medium tires of 21 laps each to complete the Grand Prix, which is 57 laps long.

Another option according to Pirelli, two stints of 16 laps on soft tires, interspersed with a stint of 25 laps on hard tires. For reference, here are the longest stints completed in Free Practice by the drivers on the grid.

See you at 5 p.m. this Sunday afternoon for the start of the first Grand Prix of the season. And of course, don’t miss the reactions and analysis to follow on Motors Inside!