The battle for the F1 title in 2025 won’t be easy

The Formula 1 teams have kicked off the designs of their cars for 2026, with the lifting of the development ban for the next generation of regulations.

As part of an agreed effort at the end of 2023 to avoid an arms race from the outset, the teams were not allowed to perform aerodynamic tests on a car geometry compliant with the 2026 rules, before January 1, 2025.

This has not, however, prevented the teams from developing some preliminary tests. With the end of this restriction, they are eager to put their first models in the wind tunnel and begin unlocking the secrets of the next generation of cars. However, from the outset, the teams will face a dilemma on the amount of resources to devote to the 2026 cars, as they also cannot completely ignore the plans for the upcoming season.

Prioritize 2026?

A tactical management will be necessary to determine where resources should be allocated. Some teams might choose to prioritize 2025 to achieve short-term gains, while others might be ready to sacrifice next year in the hope to get ahead in 2026.

As Fred Vasseur, director of the Ferrari team, stated: We are not all in the same situation. I think if you are Alpine or Aston Martin, you are probably more tempted to go for the new rules. You also have more time in the wind tunnel, which means you can probably go in that direction. If you are one of the top four teams today, you take back the car and you know you will be in the fight next year, so it’s hard to give up a championship. Also, if you know you haven’t done the best, it’s tough, even for everyone in the team.

McLaren, after winning the constructors’ championship in 2024 but narrowly missing the drivers’ title, has a clear goal: she wants to push to the maximum for 2025. Neil Houldey, technical director of engineering at McLaren, stated: I think there is an opportunity to win a championship in 2025. There is, of course, an opportunity to win championships in 2026. And we want to do both. But there is competition from Red Bull. Mercedes will have a fast car. You have Ferrari which is fast. There is no reason why these teams won’t generate a lot of performance next season, and we need to be there and do the same if we want to win the championship.

A crucial year

For the majority of teams, the key aspect will be to remain flexible in their approach. Ideally, they will manage to launch a competitive car from the start of the season, allowing them to reduce development for 2025 and fully focus on 2026.

However, if a team struggles at the beginning of the year, it might find it preferable not to invest further in the current car and to get a head start on its future challenger. This could lead to an early abandonment of the fight at the top, much earlier than would be normal if the rules remained unchanged.

Mike Krack, team principal at Aston Martin, explained: « Everyone must start on the same footing and, depending on where you are and the gaps, people will make their choices. But there are no more points in 2026 than in 2025, and there is also a constructors’ and drivers’ championship to win. I think everyone is fully focused on 2025 for now, because there are also restrictions on 2026. »

« But quickly, according to the established order and the gaps, you will have to make a choice: can I close this gap or will the others close the gap with me? Can I afford to run with what I have and focus on 2026? I cannot answer this question now. We need to be objective and see month after month where we stand », he explains.

The transition to development for 2026 should not be delayed more than necessary, as with a still limited understanding of the 2026 regulations, each week of work on the future car will likely bring more gains than efforts to improve the 2025 one.

Andrew Shovlin, track engineering director at Mercedes, said: « I don’t think anyone will opt for a complete overhaul or a radical change of concept for 2025, as it would disrupt the program too much. But I think all teams will look at their start to the year to decide when to switch completely to 2026. The reality is that the pace of development on your 2026 car should far surpass that of 2025. So each week on 2025, you lose several weeks on 2026 in terms of catching up. »

The final decision will be complex, and teams may not know if they made the right choices before the start of the 2026 season. This could lead to doubts about the cars’ performances at the beginning of the next season and, ultimately, a major headache for all teams from the outset.